Wherever you look, I find divergences everywhere. Understandably, what the market is pulling. Here is a good site, where I found the opportunity to look at a variety of indicators and , in particular, на breadth indicator. If not for the end of the year and not for seasonality, then one could aggressively go to the correctional SHORT, but at best you have to catch instant scalps.
Schedule , showing the difference between 52 high и low. As seen, the same is the growth of the market without confirmation of the growth of this indicator.
NB: Pro spin the wheel, beginners print and learn by heart:)
Part 1. Risks. The basis of the risk management is the value of the daily stop – this is the maximum amount, that you can lose in a day. Personally, I am not a supporter of that, to count it every day according to some cunning scheme (for example, hang the moving average on the profitability chart and determine the stop for the day by its value). But what exactly is worth doing – it is to decrease the day stop during the red bar. This allows you to relieve the psychological stress., get back to work and trade with a cool head. As results improve and self-confidence grows, stop needs to be increased. Raise it in 2 times too cool, but less, than one and a half – not seriously. Briefly speaking, уполторение – our choice:)
, the same mythical character, which I spoke about in my , force to trade all ideas in the same size – it will trade at 0 at best.
How to determine the size, who need to enter the position? First you need to decide for yourself, сколько вы готовы потерять в идее. The resulting value must be divided by an adequate stop in cents, round in any direction – get a size. Example: idea of 50$, risk of cents 15, 50/0.15~300sh.
Now let's dwell on the most important – how much can you lose in a specific idea? In order not to blow up your brain, all ideas should be divided into three classes: Класс С. Just fucking ideas (we are good boys and we don't sell any shit, Really?). These include approximately 80% all ideas. Depending on their trading style, they need to be willing to sacrifice 10% to 25% day stop. Class B. Just HUGE ideas. Yet 15%. Such should be allocated 30-50%. Class A. Top 5%, they happen once in a lifetime / year / month. Confidence in them must go off scale! 50-100%, even if the day is just beginning.
Example: Сферический стачок АВС падает в сильный день на повышенном объеме, runs into a large bid, on 7 cents higher a big offer is placed, prints go into it (ОМГ, he is real!), the stack has not yet made half of its daily range. Bid print out planned. This is a clear B. Let our stop 100$. Looks so good, that fifty dollars is not a pity. 50/0.07~700sh. Выход в распринт офера, now we make a plan for where and how to fix the profit and forward!
Belonging to a class – it is a function of many factors: market, stock fundamental, news, cup, volumes, where and how these volumes took place, тапе, sector, setap, then, how it looks on different time frames, риски ликвидности, risk-return and much more. You need to constantly work on the skill of defining the class of ideas. It's incredibly difficult., including psychologically, but this is the grail, кроме шуток:)
Напоследок забавная история. Тот самый Серега как-то раз на моих глазах набрал 10к (mb and embellish, but five were there anyway:) on strike, which trades about 100-150 thousand. Not, not because he's fucked up (reread the post, ёба!), but because he was confident in the idea and was ready to leave the entire day stop in it. It all went wrong at once, and throwing such a size into the market would immediately put the strike on the Top Loosers list.:) Briefly speaking, he sat and covered himself all day. About an hour before closing, he completed the process, fixing the elk in one and a half pieces. Got up and left. The end of the story I think everyone guessed it: under the closing, the stack shot in his direction by almost a point.
В настоящий момент выработано два подхода, трендовый и контртрендовый (как оригинально, ха-ха). Трендовый имеет большее количество верных сигналов, но безопасные условия для входа возникают не так часто. Плюсы контртрендового – близкие стопы, возможность поймать разворот и взять бОльшую часть движения, но количество истинных сигналов поменьше. Для каждого подхода выработан список условий, который должен полностью сооблюдаться. Для контртренда он более объемный (с десяток основных, плюс подпункты). Когда это все собралось, естественным образом возник вопрос о целесообразности ручной торговли. Happened, что самое слабое звено в цепочке – это я сам. Ie. когда система оформилась, It revealed, что руками, в силу определенных особенностей своего характера, и образа жизни, я по ней торговать не смогу, да и не самоцель это. И довольно трудно оказалось, иногда взглянув на график, прогнать соответствие текущей ситуации всем факторам, на различных инструментах. So that, вполне логично появились предпосылки к роботизации. Хотя сам я, long time, был противником МТС, в проекции на себя.
The daily SPX chart has formed the right shoulder, which can be characterized as EVENING STAR . According to the theoretical research of Bulkovsky
Theoretical performance: Bearish reversal Tested performance: Bearish reversal 72% of the time Frequency rank: 71 Overall performance rank: 4 Best percentage meeting price target: 50% (bull market, up breakout) Best average move in 10 days: 8.77% (bear market, up breakout) Best 10-day performance rank: 4 (bear market, up breakout) All ranks are out of 103 candlestick patterns with the top performer ranking 1. "Best" means the highest rated of the four combinations of bull/bear market, up/down breakouts
Replying to one of the comments. where the market can " soapy", how could it be back in April. I give an archive post with noughts and crosses… May events “knocked this train off the rails”, what will happen this time?!!!!
All the same, glued futures charts, so-called continuous backadjusted, where charts are shifted to close gaps between contracts, sometimes just have a very large error. look, for example, what the quarterly glued backadjusted Natural Gas futures chart looks like
It is seen, that the graph in remote years has shifted so high up that it is just a misunderstanding. This happened due to the fact that contango accumulated in the transitions between contracts., or backwardation, I can’t figure out what exactly, but because of this, in each month, the previous historical data constantly shifted upwards and in the end they were so adjusted that the graph was distorted beyond recognition.
But in fact, the natural gas graph looks like this as shown in the picture below.. This graph was glued together using the continuous spliced method — that is, between the contracts of neighboring months there was such a gap as it actually was and the schedules did not move anywhere.
The first graph gives the impression that Natural Gas has nowhere to fall., since the whole story is falling and the rise to heaven must begin. But from the true, on the second chart, it can be assumed that it is possible to fall as long as the historical lows are still far from being reached.
There is an interesting Visualization in WealthLab_6 called “Lifetime” positions. This is how it looks for tested systems. — first for Trend Tracking System, the second for the Medium Term System — both doughs for Cotton futures
Cotton Trades by Trend Tracking System (15 years):
Vertically — percentage profit, horizontally the number of bars in a trade, one schedule – one deal. You can see how at first the profit grows, and then gives the profit from the top. Ideally, it would be nice to close the deal at the very top, but this moment is impossible to guess. The current one is drawn in red., still open trade at the level, about, 36%. She has already reached the level, from where, two times in the 15-year history of cotton trading using this system, the tops of the trade were reached and profits of the order of 9%. That's why, Thinking, and shouldn't I close Cotton in advance, without waiting for it to go down and carry off the crawling stop. Although, On the other hand, by time (number of bars in a trade) it's still too early — it is quite possible that this will be a record trade and if it is closed early, then you may not receive what you deserve :)
That just, Confirms Cotton's Medium Term System Trade — it is clear that all the records of the system have been broken for a long time and the profit is almost 40%.
Budget expenditures. In Bloomberg, in some places very interesting `` economic daily '', no matter how you pay for it. Not that, to something important, but useful interesting things often come across. Here, Really, I didn't get it, why subtract FFR, but the general idea is already clear.
Consequences of QE. As opposed to 'the markets are driven by the printing press', was so bulish on the American macro, that I almost did not believe in a return to slightly above trend growth. We urgently need to go see Rosenberg, to restore peace of mind.
Ukrrynok. Excuse me, for a vulgar phrase, but he really is meaningless and merciless. Especially the second. Can I have a little banter? From what was noticed the other day.
SMASH. Some guys woke up a couple of days ago, but there was a meeting 25 yet. Certainly, don't warn me I would oversleep the event itself, but the market is still, least 2 day gave the opportunity to painlessly enter / exit. Although, in general,, not my job, to deal with some sector.
“Let's consider ukravtoprom by EV / Capacity and compare with the Chinese”. Jetty, underestimated. You need to continue or everything immediately becomes clear? By the way, taking into account the plans for the introduction of new capacities, you can change all kinds of EV / Capacity in EM to increase the Capacity itself. Type, they are underestimated in EM, because, what's there capacity expansion. If the latter were not there, then EV / Capacity would not be 6, and, say 8. Well, and then in the same style.
And just a little bit more angry. Hmm, and where is the UX Index on 1000 points? Not, i don't mind, to draw conclusions looking at the graph. God be with them with astrocycles, eliots and other grails. Everyone has their own cockroaches (for example, I quite seriously believe in patterns, at that, that they can exist, exactly can, but do not exist). And actually, my summer look was like this: macro everything will be fine, technique – everything is just disgusting. Stop, where does it have to do with “UB index on 1000 points”? The fact, that the representatives of this movement seem to sincerely believed in doubledeep. But they had a lot of buy recommendations. All in all, skis, certainly, as always, nothing to do with it.
May-view on 1-8 In general, my forecast has not changed… I expect that mamba by the end of the year will strive for 1370 .. and this 10% downside on the market)) IN
