Свежий технический взгляд

 Привожу ниже schedule по SPY ( ETF Standard and Poors)  with different sections. It seems to me, what kind of extension of the inverted HIP, its implementation remains in doubt and I think, that it was transformed into an ascending channel, the value of which is shown by white arrows.  However, it is worth noting, that the crimson line is level 1131-1132 not yet overcome, although friday such an attempt seemed real.  The further fate of the market will depend on, will we gain a foothold above this crimson line. In case of failure, it is necessary to look at the blue lines of a new ascending channel, a breakdown of which can lead to a level 950-955.
This structure reminds me of a chart of oil, where one channel is broken down and now the channel is at a lower level and also under threat. Possible, that oil will break down first and pull everything else.

As for my gaze or premonition, то должен сказать, that I am leaning towards a downgrade scenario in view of, that the technical picture is neutral, but fundamentally the market is not cheap( нейтральный) and the economy is slowing down. Although also corporate reporting can distort the true state of affairs. if other companies report as Oracle. But I do not see apocalyptic events, contrary to Prechter, which keeps on beating the `` tambourine of bears ''. Должен сказать, if you really look at the big frame market chart, then one can argue for 50% from the existing level. Но это тоже самое, what to say the United States is in for a depression worse than the 1930s, I don't see it yet.
I also want to say, what I noticed back in 2000, that the market sometimes shifts its cyclicality, so both this year and 2009 the seasonality was strange, so I don’t presume to bet on it, although we can expect a fall by November and an increase( after the election campaign in the USA) until January.