Market “guru” appeared from that very moment, how people faced the market. IN 1841 the classic book on market manias, "Extraordinarily Popular Misconceptions and Crowd Madness", was published in England. It is still being republished today.. Charles McKay describes tulip mania in it, boom in the South Seas in England and other massive manias. Human nature changes slowly, and today new manias, including the mania to follow “guru”, continue to reach markets.
Thanks to modern telecommunications, “guru” create their manias much faster, than before. Even educated and intelligent players and investors follow the market “guru”, like the followers of medieval messiahs.
Among the thousands of analysts, someone is sure to be in favor at any given moment.. Most analysts turned out to be famous at some point in their careers for the same reason., according to which the damaged clock shows the exact time twice a day. They, who managed to enjoy fame during their fortunes, often consider themselves destroyed, when luck passes and they leave the market. But there are old foxes too, who joyfully meet their happiness and continue to work as usual, when it ends.
Эдсон Гоулд был царствующим “guru” at the beginning 1970 years. He based his predictions on changes in the policy of the Federal Reserve System., reflected in the change in the discount rate. His famous "three steps and stop" rule was, what if Federal Reserve System raises discount rates three times, then it means tightening the nuts and leads to the market “медведей”. A threefold reduction in the discount rate means a softening of credit policy and leads to a market “bulls”. Gould also developed an original graphic technique., called speed lines – simple trend lines, whose slope depends on the rate of change and the depth of market reactions.
During the market “медведей” 1973-1974 years Gould became very famous. He took off to fame, correctly predicting the December low 1974 of the year, when the Dow Jones fell to almost 500. Когда рынок взлетел вверх, this important turn was correctly predicted by Gould along the lines of speed and his fame was strengthened. But the US was soon flooded with liquid assets., inflation picked up steam and Gould's methods, developed for other conditions of the financial market, stopped working. TO 1976 year he had almost no supporters and now very few people can even remember his name.
IN 1978 a new year has appeared “guru” market cycle. Joseph Granville claimed, that changes in sales precede changes in prices. He formulated it colorfully: "Volume – this is the steam, from which the locomotive goes ". Granville created his theory while working for a large brokerage firm on Wall Street.. He wrote in his autobiography, that the idea came to him, when he sat in the toilet and studied the pattern on the floor. Granville took his idea from the closet to charts, but the market refused to fulfill its forecasts. He went broke, divorced and slept on the floor in his friend's office. But in the late 1970s, the market began to operate on Granville scenarios like never before., and people started to pay attention to it.
Granville toured the US and drew huge crowds. He went to the stage in a wheelchair, published forecasts and vilified "retrogrades", who did not accept his theory. Он играл на пианино, sang and even pulled down his pants at times, to be more convincing. His predictions were amazingly accurate. He drew attention to himself, has become widely quoted and covered in print. Granville got so big, that began to influence the securities market. When he announced, what joins “медведям”, Dow Jones fell on 40 points per day, which was very cool at the time. Granville was intoxicated with his success. The market went up in 1982 year, but he stayed with “медведями” and recommended to his supporters to sell. The market took off like a rocket in 1983. Granville finally gave up and recommended buying, when the Dow Jones nearly doubled. He continued to issue a newsletter, but it was just a pale shadow of the past.
IN 1984 year a new “guru”. Robert Pricher made a name for himself as a follower of the Elliott wave theory. Elliot was an unremarkable accountant, developed their market theory in the 1930s. He believed, that the market is going up 5 волнами, а вниз 3 волнами, and each can be split into several smaller waves.
Like most market teachers before him, Pricher has produced letters of recommendation for many years with limited success.. Когда рынок “bulls” broke through the mark 1000 according to Dow Jones, people started to listen to the young analyst, approving, what the index will reach 3000. Strong market “bulls” became stronger and the glory of Pricher grew by leaps and bounds.
During a raging market “bulls” 1980-x Prichera's glory escaped the narrow circle of newsletters and investment conferences. Precher has appeared on national television and has been interviewed by mainstream magazines. In October 1987 year he, seemed to hesitate, first giving a sell signal, but then inviting your followers to prepare to buy. When the Dow Jones fell by 500 points, mass admiration for Precher gave way to contempt and hatred. Some blamed him for the recession, while others were indignant, that the market has not reached the promised 3000. Prichera's advisory business fell apart and he, In general, вышел в отставку.
As long as mass psychology remains the same, что она есть, New “guru” will appear inevitably.
