They say it's obvious. Only the blind cannot see that this is the peak and should be sold, since the bear market is already knocking on the door. Although, also, only the blind could not sell by 1500, when it was also obvious that this was the peak. Now the price 2000, and this is already +33% from 1500. Maybe, only the blind will not see in the future what needs to be sold by 2500, 3000 etc, every 500 points. By the way, on Smartlabe, some analyst shorts every 100 points, beginning with 1500, if I am not mistaken in anticipation of a collapse of the markets. But he may not be shorting anymore, because there is already nothing to short., I haven't read for a long time.
If we take it for a hypothesis that the bear market should replace every bull market and so on ad infinitum, that yes, just buy below, we sell at the top and no problem. Однако если расширим свой горизонт и посмотрим schedule не за 15 years, and for 100, for example, then we will see a completely different picture.
There are three places on the chart where there were obvious consolidations., where bull markets gave way to bear markets and the duration of consolidations was approximately 10-15 years. After exiting the consolidation, the markets grew by about 20 years and grew during this time in 10-15 once. It turns out that if this trend continues, the flow 2030 year the index will cost 15 000 – 20 000. So that, those who are short or just waiting for a decline, may miss very big prospects.
Many argue that the `` fear index" BARELY уже на минимуме, and this always portends another bear market. But here is a graph where you can see that the minimum is still far away. — from the current price approximately 20-40% may decrease — it's still on 3-4 of the year, if not more. And if you look deep into history, it is clear that despite the increase in the `` fear index" with 1994 on 2000 the years, the market also rose almost without pullbacks — with 1995 on 2000 years has been one of the most bull markets in history.
