I think, what many have seen schedule recession probabilities ()
Krugman is good , which affects the instruments / indicators that are used for calculations. there is a fairly common set, including the `` slope of the yield curve ''. when long stakes are higher than short stakes – this is a sign of a normal situation, when the short ones get to the long ones – the loud step of the approaching recession.
I don't quite agree either, what in our case hides behind the normal shape of the curve, something more than normalization of processes. not ready to jump into distant conclusions about, that monetary policy is not working now, but she's definitely not what she was before.
go back a year. how many of you / us believed in high inflation today, or into sustained deflation in 2008 also in 2007 year? who believed in that, that the current rates on long-term securities will be at this level in 2009? some respected people generally like to write about the bubble in the US government debt market (bubble, not a pyramid, which is not the same).
