Last week pleased with fresh releases of the still favorite indicator of strategists – purchasing index / optimism / managerial sentiment. Data available for many countries, even across Russia, even in Russian. .
This is what the global slice looks like: everything is fine.
We summarize like this. By the way, all things grows, and employment too.
Important, that the service sector is also recovering, especially, with regard to employment.
Even in long-suffering Europe, everything is not so bad.
Now let's get back to that, why is the 'favorite indicator of strategists'.
The confidentiality crisis was at the heart of events 08 of the year, therefore PMI has proven to be an excellent indicator by which to monitor recovery. But, only in the early stages. At the moment, consensus has come to something like this:
* the momentum of recovery is over. risks from upside risks turned into downside risks
* almost everything points to the continuation of the self-sustainable recovery of the economy, which is the entrance to the next stage of economic recovery
* We will check it according to the data of the second quarter by looking at the dynamics of reserves and its contribution to the dynamics of GDP (I added it skeptically from myself already))
Actually, SMEs – not the best indicator for the stock market. GDP is not so volatile, but we are not indulging in futures on macro indicators, in fact (though, joining the dreams of Bob Schiller, it would be interesting to trade ityefs on gdp).
Here is the PMI and Dow story, three-month rate of change for the entire available history of the American industrial PMI.
And wto now, the same but with 2000 of the year, to make it easy to see.
Actually, a growing / falling PMI market is not decisive outside of periods of rapid change.
Yes, if you watch the growth rate of PMI, then there is little optimism. Especially chinese.
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