Обзор рынка для трейдеров: 28 Martha 2025 of the year

🟢 Общая ситуация

На утро 28 марта российский рынок, probably, откроется с умеренным оптимизмом после бокового движения накануне. IMOEX Index (Mosbirzha) presumably starts in the range of 3,230-3,260 points (+0.5-1% from yesterday's close of 3,200-3,250). Main drivers:

Oil: Brent may rise to $71/bbl after data on US inventories (EIA, 27 Martha), What will support the oil and gas sector.

 

Ruble: USD/RUB in the 96-98 zone, The weakness of the ruble persists due to sanctions and demand for currency before quarterly payments.

 

Global News: Expectations for PCE data from the US (28 Martha, 15:30 MSC) and reactions FED can add volatility to the evening

 

 

General Market Condition

The market will open at 3,230-3,260 pips (+0.5-1% to 3,200-3,250). Drivers:

  • Oil: Brent $71–72 (EIA, 27 Martha).
  • Ruble: USD/RUB 96–98.
  • USA: PCE (15:30 MSC).

📈 Key Promotions:

SBER

  • Price: 308–312 rub, trend +0.8%, ATR 3.5 rub.
  • Support: 305, resistance: 315.
  • Purchase: 310, stop 306, goal 318 (+800 RUB with 1:10).

GAZP

  • Price: 154–157 rub, trend -0.3%, ATR 2 rub.
  • Support: 152, resistance: 159.
  • Short: 156, stop 158, goal 152 (+400 rub).

LKOH

  • Price: 7120–7170 rub, trend +1%, ATR 75 rub.
  • Support: 7080, resistance: 7250.
  • Purchase: 7150, stop 7100, goal 7300 (+1500 rub).

YNDX

  • Price: 3920–3970 rub, trend +1.2%, ATR 55 rub.
  • Support: 3880, resistance: 4050.
  • Purchase: 3950, stop 3900, goal 4100 (+1500 rub).

MTSS

  • Price: 285–290 rub, trend +0.6%, ATR 4 rub.
  • Support: 282, resistance: 295.
  • Purchase: 288, stop 284, goal 298 (+1000 rub).

GROW, NVTK, TATN, GMKN, ALRS

  • GROW: 560–565 rub, purchase 562, goal 572.
  • NVTK: 1050–1060 rub, purchase 1055, goal 1080.
  • TATN: 650–655 rub, purchase 652, goal 670.
  • GMKN: 13,500–13,600 rub, shorts 13,550, goal 13,350.
  • ALRS: 65–67 rub, purchase 66, goal 69.
  We buy at lows or highs?

Sector

  • Oil & Gas: +0.8% (LKOH, GROW).
  • Finance: +1% (SBER).
  • IT: +1.5% (YNDX).
  • Metals: -0.5% (GMKN).

Macro

  • Oil: $71–72.
  • USA: PCE (15:30 MSC).
  • China: SMEs (31 Martha).

Tehanalysis

IMOEX: RSI 58, support 3,200, resistance 3,280.

Recommendations

  • Shoulder 1:10: Focus on LKOH, YNDX, SBER.
  • Intraday: 10:00–12:00 MSC.
  • Short: GAZP, GMKN.

Risks

  • PCE Above 0.3%.
  • IMOEX Expiration.

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