I have been thinking for a long time and cannot understand what is the problem with the default on government bonds.
default causes capital flight – currency panic – девальвацию – shock in imported industries (problems with the banking system, if there are a large number of liabilities denominated in foreign currency).
and now the question.
Well, what kind of currency panic will a stupid refusal of payments on sovereign Greek obligations cause??
OK, Greece, this is not the Zhytomyr region, let's equate the default of Greece with the default of Kiev.
Yes, it will be unpleasant, но не боле.
moral hazard of defaults along the chain?
No. for the country is not an enemy to itself, unlike Greece. и о каком % the debt market denominated in euros we say?
inference. the actions of the manager differ catastrophically depending on the nature of the forces with which the struggle is going. in our case – these are forces of a psychological nature. рыночный сентимент.
style problems:
– but should we get out of the euro zone from these damned capitalists (unknown greek 40-year-old student)?
in this case are not considered.
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or am I wrong and a default on Greek bonds will cause an escape from German bonds on a larger scale than just widening the spread in relation to Trejaris?
