U.S. stock indexes fall amid geopolitical tensions and rate concerns FED USA.
Bear Market
8 Martha Nasdaq closed at the mark in 12 796 points. Since November 2021, it has already fallen by 20,3%. Rollback to more than 20% called a bear market. The last time the index fell sharply in March 2020 – by about 30%.
According to analytical firm Bespoke, on average, the Nasdaq spends 7-8 months in bear territory, and the maximum drawdown is 30-35%. The company noted, that in three out of four cases, the index grew after a year.
Analysts suggest, that S&P 500 may follow nasdaq.
"The Nasdaq is a leading indicator.. Commodity companies hold other indices and create a false sense of security.", — said in the financial publishing house T3 Live.
According to the publisher, S&P 500 may lose up to 20%. 8 In March, the index closed at the level of 4170 points - on 13,5% below the maximum.
The research firm CFRA believes, that investors should keep an eye on an important level of 3800 pips. Here's the forward P / E — the ratio of capitalization to expected profit in the next year — will be 17. And this is the average value over the past few years..
Large stocks from the Nasdaq exchange, which have fallen more than others since the beginning of 2022
| PayPal (PYPL) | 95 $ (−50%) |
| Modern (MRNA) | 129 $ (−49%) |
| Meta Platforms (FB) | 190 $ (−43%) |
| Netflix (NFLX) | 342 $ (−43%) |
| Align Technology (ALGN) | 415 $ (−37%) |
| Etsy (ETSY) | 138 $ (−37%) |
| Zebra Technologies (ZBRA) | 384 $ (−35%) |
| IPG Photonics (IPGP) | 112 $ (−35%) |
| Teradyne (TO HAVE) | 108 $ (−34%) |
| Match Group (MTCH) | 88 $ (−34%) |
| Lam Research (LRCX) | 490 $ (−32%) |
| T. Rowe (TROW) | 135 $ (−31%) |
| Intuit (INTU) | 442 $ (−31%) |
| Autodesk (ADSK) | 196 $ (−30%) |
| Western Digital (WDC) | 46 $ (−30%) |
| LKQ (LKQ) | 43 $ (−29%) |
| Copart (CPRT) | 109 $ (−28%) |
| Starbucks (SBUX) | 84 $ (−28%) |
| Nvidia (NVDA) | 215 $ (−27%) |
| AMD (AMD) | 106 $ (−27%) |
95 $ (−50%)
Revised forecasts
Leading investment houses began to revise their goals for S&P 500 for 2022. So, Yardeni Research expects to see S&P 500 at the end of the year at the level of 4000 points:
"This year could be one of the most dangerous for equity investors.. We're seeing stagflation in the U.S.: high inflation and slowing economic growth. A recession can no longer be ruled out.".
UBS also described a negative scenario. In his opinion, S&P 500 may drop to 3700 points by the end of this year, if the price of oil exceeds 150 $ per barrel:
“It will increase the risk of stagflation. Prices may continue to rise, and this will force central banks to raise rates aggressively.. This is in an environment of already weak economic growth.".
According to Trading Economics, with 24 In February, the price of Brent crude oil rose by about 40%, with 95 to 130 $ per barrel. Coal prices, nickel, European gas also increased by 100-200% after the start of Russia's operation in Ukraine..
In the baseline scenario, UBS expects S growth.&P 500 up to 4800 points. “If the profits of companies are stable, and the inflation rate will decrease after the rate hike.", — specified the bank.
Analysts at Evercore ISI also changed the target on S&P 500 from 5100 to 4800 points, but gave a more optimistic forecast: US economic growth is slowing down, but it is still strong.".
Evercore ISI advised investors to look at the company's value, not growth. And also on the company, who can painlessly raise the prices of their goods and shift costs to consumers.
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