That, что в заявлении FED нет ни слова про QE3 не отменяет того, that any official at the Fed can give a hint at any event, say in Jackson Hall about "the weakness of the economy and the need to maintain it", which will be interpreted in absentia and equated to the program announcement. Do banks need QE3, after all, they seem to have enough liquidity and do not suffer from a shortage? For banks, this is a source of profit, how by working with a spread. They buy Treasuries cheaper, and sell the Fed more expensive, and through the market for risky assets, which is the example of the growth of the market during QE2 and the current fixation. They make a profit, as a commission, and by exchange rate difference. Market volatility is favorably added to the balance sheets of those banks, who drive this volatility. In the context of the current difficult situation with the real sector of the economy, then yes - QE3 is needed. Not the economy - this is understandable, а банкам.
Announcement of QE3 just a month after QE2 would NOT be understood by anyone, except bankers. "How so, and where is the effect of QE2?!», – many will ask and they will be right. Нет эффекта! This is a dangerous situation for the Fed in terms of a possible loss of confidence and collision with the opposition.. And confidence in the Fed was lost as part of the second operation to flood the markets with liquidity. It was dangerous to escalate. Yes, I admitted, that they can announce a new portion of liquidity today, making allowance for their complete recklessness. But the remnants of conscience and reason remained. But one more time, this does not change that, that in a few weeks Ben will say in an interview, what time is it, friends! It's time to hit the economy with a buck and look at this mocking experiment for the third time.. Anyway, main solution behind Wall St. And Ben is just a Wall St position repeater.
A lot of people are wasting their time, looking for clues in the press, to somehow explain such price fluctuations, but all attempts will be a priori in vain, because price fluctuations can never be unambiguously interpreted in relation to the news background. Everyone already knows a fairly popular situation on the market., when bad news in a growing market is used to buy a little cheaper, good news in a weak market, as an opportunity to quickly exit the market on a micro bounce. As one example, this is Friday's employment data, which seem to be better than market expectations, but were used, as an opportunity to reposition yourself as short.
But usually experienced traders do not try to explain the reasons for the rise or fall., because. understand the whole pointlessness of this undertaking in the short term. Chart prices, basically, enough. You won't know any more of the market anyway, unless you have insider information. But even, если знаете, then this will not be an argument in favor of, for the market to go the wrong way, in which you wish, following analysis and analytics. You're going to be slower anyway, will not have advanced sources of information, and the impulse is not obvious, because. it all depends on the market conditions. For people, trading within a day does not make sense to know the reasons for price fluctuations. Everything, what you need is to follow the mood of the crowd, or use neutral strategies, but usually complex patterns in combination of futures, options, and if there are enough funds, then the principle of counter-trend in the hope that, what prices go back there, where did they come from. but, this method is suitable for positional medium-term trading and for a large account with tight risk control.
All this nonsense about “economic slowdown” And “ratings”, which we are stuffed with the media are needed only for analysts, so that they have at least some opportunity to comment on the movement of the market. But none of this has anything to do with reality.. Slowdown of the economy is not taken over one day, as well as growth. These are lengthy processes, latent, with large lags, задержками. The US economy has been slowing down for several months, and to be frank, then she did not really come out of the crisis either, and all that way out, which nominally takes place to be more, than on 70% subsidized by the state. More specific figures presented in previous posts.
In addition, the "economic slowdown" does not prevent the markets from growing for a month., three months, half a year or even a year, what we actually observed with 2010 of the year. Ie. the limit of ignoring "economic slowdown" cannot be predicted, determine in advance. It defies quantification, ie. it was impossible to say, for example, in March 2011, that in August the market will collapse and will look at the "real state of the economy", and then again fall into zombie status for several months. Such serenity will be, that no one will remember, what happened in early August 2011 of the year.
You just have to understand, what is the insider market now. There is no room for many concepts., which are described in publicly available books, статьях, семинарах. If books were written about the real working methods of investment bankers, then these methods would cause rejection among the masses in view of their criminal and fraudulent nature. People would not want to go to the system, manipulative, provocations and lies. They would not want to be deceived. So, they would not have carried the money to the market., which means that the funds would not have a client base and, in the end, about whom the professionals would close their positions?
Imagine, if at the University teachers would talk about, that the Federal Reserve and Treasury sided with the planners of the crisis 2008, not saviors of the economy. How students would look at the teacher, and even more so for this whole system? And if it was written, that the Fed is controlled by Wall St? So the author would be thought of as a madman. You can't say this in office publications. It is forbidden, never! It will destroy their business and trust in the system..
How banks work, and indeed any professionals are very simple. They use natural instincts, emotions of people to their advantage. They know, that after euphoria there will be a return to normal, they know, that in times of panic, you should always buy, а не продавать, because. for large players this is the only opportunity to enter a position at good prices. Naturally, to push people in the "right direction", they have their own means for this.
For example, circus with a limit on debt was used in full, downgrade by S agency&P was planned by the US government and Wall St, as a fairly significant and major event, which would cause panic in the markets. I hope, what do you realize, that S&P, located in New York could do nothing, to go beyond the agreement between affiliated structures? Ie. insiders were aware, in addition, the plan was worked out for many months and in advance. And even the absence of direct allusions from the Fed about QE3 caused a huge avalanche of sell orders at the evening session in New York.. Which was also taken advantage of! ))
Will there be a repeat of the crisis 2008? If they want, то будет, but will they want? I doubt, so aware, that this crisis for them may be the last and will not be eager to lose their homes. After all, for a lot of what the crisis 2008 arranged? Поняли, overdone these megaton pools of shitty CDS and CDO. Поняли, that the system is going down. I had to somehow dump all this shit, otherwise it would have drowned the whole system. To reset, it was necessary to provoke a crisis. But as? Flood a large. What for? So that regulators have the opportunity to buy out all the shit from the banks' balance sheets and partially clean up the system. And who to fill up ? Largest bank, to trigger a chain of bankruptcies and write-offs, provoking a liquidity crisis. Therefore Lehman was chosen, plus it is a competitor bank and Wall ST said goodbye to him with great joy, because. Lehman's share is now distributed by the largest banks.
Until they have shitty assets in that volume, how in 2007, so they don't need a crisis yet 2008. At least for banks in the USA. In Europe, the situation is more complicated, because. banks hit the left-handed debts of the Pigs group countries, and this theoretically can explode. Надо быть осторожными. Markets are likely to be bought now, if only to remove the oversold level and close the margin of those, who sits on all shoulders in shorts. I still think so. Usually, after a panic, there is always a short squeeze.. Further? According to circumstances)
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