so, the market is slightly minus today FOMC. That, that he is in the stratosphere is beyond doubt, but it is also not unusual since there have already been situations of prolonged stay, as overbought, and oversold. It just doesn't happen that often..
Undoubtedly. judging by the upward movement of the market, the investment world votes for future economic growth and discounts it. I've already heard, what SPX earnings is expected in 2010 near 80 and if we apply, say 15, then the goal is 1200, and on 2011 Order 90-95. then you can expect 1400-1500.
Basically, why not :)) Only I think, that the angle of rise is higher , what it should be. This is due to excess liquidity and she chooses places , where the risk is higher. As a matter of fact, don't scare, but if there is liquidity, then why do you need some 3-4% without risk. You can sit out the risk, if upside 15-20%, and the stock and commodity market showed, what can be done and much more.
The moment of truth for the market today will be associated with, what Bernacke will tell us about the exit strategy. If the market is so bullish, hence, everything is good and you need to gradually withdraw liquidity. The first step is to return that spread between fed funds and discount rate, which was before the crisis, that is in 100 bp means more 50 Bp has FED before, how to think about raising the fed fund rate.
We already know what reaction it can produce.. Besides. I think, what it needs to be done as commodities are starting to enter the price range, which is undesirable from the point of view of producers and consumers.
US gasoline starts again “prick” exceeds 3 bucks for a gallon. That's why “withdrawal” liquidity should at least cool the commodity markets, which were inflated with hot money.
From a technical point of view, while observed RSI divergence in SPX and ES. Perhaps today it will be a kind of local apogee for the market, if Bernanke agrees with my thoughts. Consolidation zone 1168 for ES is still pivotal support for this market.
During the day, I will probably increase the SHORT depending on the situation..
In Russia, so far, everything remains in force in the sense of ideas for Gazprom and Norilsk Nickel. Yes, and the market itself will stare at the United States and should today be “defensive”
