I know, I know. I just wrote about, what .
But the dynamics of prices suggests that, that in the short term, we may well contemplate the resumption of bearish pressure on precious metals. Growth from 1183 was very moderate. Have reached 1254 and immediately back. And now at 1230 for that gold seemed to stand still in anticipation of a new wave of sales.
Furthermore, the mastodons of the Merrill Lynch market are going to short gold in the near future in order to 1180 and below — 1087 dollars per ounce. As I understand it, 1250-1255 for market participants — new level, from which the entrance to the short.
And as much as we want to believe in our theories, you need to try to keep your nose downwind.
Furthermore, I guess, what on breakout 1180 dollars per troy ounce fall will be very rapid. Here you should rather be guided by 1000 and below. It's like in 2008 year SP500 fell from 1500, and I figured, what's the round number in 1000 will be strong resistance. But no.. Passed like a hot knife through butter.
So I may very well consider shorting gold in my trading..
Since I thought about the SP500, Tell, what's in the book «Вышел хэджер из тумана» Burton Biggs, top manager of the well-known investment company Morgan Stanley (Unfortunately, B. Biggs died in the summer 2012 years on 79 year of life) talked about some crazy analyst from Maine, specializing in Fibonacci numbers, who showed him some calculations of his theory and proved, that the SP500 will soon drop to 650, which did not look very believable at that time.
Позволю себе цитату из Books:
Really good explanations for, why the Fibonacci sequence exists, not offered. Some explain this by, that God is a mathematician; others say, that all this is pure coincidence and nonsense of feverish minds. Some scholars claim, that the Fibonacci sequence and the golden spiral are so widespread, that they should be part of some kind of periodic growth pattern. Others state, what is nature's way of getting quantity, without sacrificing beauty.
It would be strange, if there were no people willing to apply Fibonacci numbers to the stock market. Especially a lot of effort was put in this direction by P. N. Elliott at the beginning 1930 х годов. He claimed, that the models of the historical development of mankind are not random and follow a super cycle of three steps forward and two steps back. He also argued, that this sequence is reflected with exquisite accuracy in the dynamics of the ups and downs of the stock market. IN 1960 s Hamilton Bolton, editor of Bank Credit Analyst , wrote numerous articles in support of the Elliott Wave Theory; Bob Pretcher, publishes its market leaflet, - another prominent student of Elliott. Using Wave Theory Analysis, The pretcher correctly predicted the "bull market" of the beginning 1980 s and identified 1987 a turning year. Markets kindly crashed in 1987 year, and Pretcher became an investment guru. IN 1990 year he wrote a book on looming tidal waves, doom and gloom, And, as far as I know, since then it has been exclusively in bearish positions. Maybe, his problem was, that he miscalculated the supercycle wave.
In Japan, during the last stages of a big bull market, a market analyst worked for Morgan Stanley, relying entirely on the old strategy of the Osaka rice trader, which is essentially a variation of the Fibonacci numbers. This system, подобно многим другим, worked well when describing historical data, but was failing in real time. As a result, one day this guy was one wave late and was drowned during the collapse of the Japanese market in 1990 year. The problem with applying Fibonacci numbers to the stock market has always been to determine the starting point and to correctly count the waves.. Since there are smaller waves inside the larger waves, многие ученики Фибоначчи пытаются осуществлять на их основе краткосрочный Trading. I'm skeptical about it. Fibonacci Elliott Wave Counters Results Are Not Optimistic, and I think, that they, with their dogma, can cause serious trouble for their followers.Fibonacci numbers are impressive, but they are too mystical for market analysis
Anyway, I did meet this Fibonacci freak from Maine. He was young and clear in his face, and his statements were distinguished by enthusiasm and incredible sincerity.
Obviously, he passionately believed in his idea. "God must be a mathematician", - he told me, pulling out and rolling along the entire length of our conference table a printout of a long schedule, whose title sounded like this: Fibonacci sequence in supercycles. Schedule отображал динамику американского фондового рынка, covered the period from 1789 years and was speckled with thin blue lines and neat handwritten notes. Then he took in more air in his lungs and began his story., claiming, that, based on Fibonacci numbers, the fourth wave of the giant, happening "once every millennium", supercycle lasted from 1966 on 1982 the years. Then came the fifth wave, which ended in spring 2000 of the year. Он верит, that now we have entered the three-wave stage of the fall, although he admits, that there is disagreement among the followers of this theory as to the precise definition of, what wave are we in. Current "minuet" wave (sic!) sets index S&P 500 at the level 1052 points. Meng truly believes, that the next downward wave will bring it down to the level 650 points (что составит 0,618 from 1050).
Barton, certainly right about the difficulty of bargaining for such calculations. And although the SP500 nevertheless stumbled into 2008 year to 750 (and the book was written in 2006, and the meeting with a guy from Maine took place even earlier), how would you like to trade such long forecasts and even with leverage?
God bless you, don't get bearish attack.
