MegaBlog- – this is an amalgamation of posts from popular trading blogs . This section will allow you to track interesting topics and track popular trends in trading., understand what traders live.
Applications for the MICEX do not pass half a day – account blocked, tech support phone is constantly busy, ICQ responds, what solve the problem. Everything is fine at VTB in the meantime. I understand, there was some kind of forex kitchen…
One of the most powerful figures in the financial world – Leo Melamed (Leo Melamed) – revolutionized the trade futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. However, like his colleague’s financial genius of George Soros, Melamed first had to take an amazing journey that included slipping away from the Nazis and the Russian to get into the United States. In 1939, he and his family fled from Poland to Lithuania, but when they were there, they needed transit visas to continue the journey. “Even my philosophically minded father – told Melamed – could not explain how you can reduce a person’s life to wait in line a piece of paper, which could mean the difference between life and death.” Crossing Siberia by train, the young Melamed learned my first lesson in strategy – stay calm and focus under fire – for, to his amazement, his father fell into chess, apparently ignoring the chaos around him.
all selected stacks before opening – take for 100%
after the market is closed, better even the next day we look at them again in turn.
looking for obvious entry points, but for some reason missed.
Put +1 for each share, where was at least one entry point.
then we sum up and calculate their percentage of the total number, taken for 100%.
well, tends to increase this parameter, good for finviz'e there are many criteria, to make yourself a different selection of stocks.
The other day I had a creative conversation with a stock trader from Moscow under the nickname osmar92 (), which inspired me to test one idea, prompted by the distinguished osmar92.
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osmar92: I prefer to re-login many times, liquidating a position, if I think, that I am right in the assessment.
JC: And it does not happen in this case so, that the loss from frequent prepayments will exceed, finally held, successful trade, in which you were right? :)
osmar92: TOof course this can be, but this is insurance for a possible loss. It's better to do less because of the cost, than to be in a decent minus. The task is not to do much, and often a little.
That, what makes an experienced trader cannot be copied by an inexperienced one as experience suggests, what to do in a specific situation. I just gave this approach as an illustration., that you don't need to cling or as they say marry a trade, opportunities are enough. Get off where it didn't work and look elsewhere.
After all, beginners cling and stand in a losing position until the cock crows.
To your question, I can ask a counter question. What if I jumped off correctly and found an even better trade?. which worked in 2 times better than the previous one, instead of , to sit in it.
JC: So lucky. Maybe, lucky not by accident, but based on your experience and acquired intuition for such situations. But, Admit it, that an initially unprofitable situation can shoot in the right direction and predict in advance, which position out of several will be the most profitable, That's impossible. We're just playing out our statistical advantage in the long run.. One strictly according to the system, others based on acquired intuition. Second, unfortunately not available to me — probably killed the development of intuition with a strict systemic approach. Therefore, I try to check by testing on history — Will small losses from prepayments exceed large profits from one trade?. It happens in different ways, sometimes exceed, sometimes not.
That is, I wanted to say that this is all ambiguous. :)
osmar92: Basically true.
Although my vision, which can even help you in systemic( in the full sense of the word, since I also have a system), if you enter a trade, then it should immediately produce the result. Based on my experience and statistics, usually the most successful trades are, who immediately start working in the right direction, otherwise the entry point will be incorrect and therefore the system needs to be configured.
We are all different, different people have different hemispheres. But the future belongs to intuitive systems, based on mathematics and intuitive modeling. THEN, what they try to call neural networks, still far from that self-learning and flexibility , which is inherent in man
JC: It may well be like this. It will be necessary to test this idea., for example, if after entering for some time the price has not passed some minimum distance in the desired direction, then take appropriate action.
osmar92: I am more , than sure, that statistics will be on the side of that, what did I say.
JC: thanks for the idea :)
osmar92: My pleasure.
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here you go, we start testing the idea of, what if the price after opening a position for a certain time has not passed the minimum distance in the desired direction, then we close the position as potentially unpromising. For the inputs, let's take the widely accepted standard Aberration system.. Everyone knows her — standard breakout system, built on Bollinger channels. When the upper channel is broken, we enter long by buy-stop, upon breakdown of the lower, respectively, short. Exit on the stop of the middle line of Bollinger Bands, or , which is the same, by SMA with a period like the channels. The system itself is .
We modify this system — if through N(1,2,3,4,5) days the price will not pass M(1,2,3,4,5)%, then we close the position the next day at the opening as unpromising. We will optimize the parameters and find the best solution. If the condition for the rate of price growth is satisfied, then we close by condition, given by the system — on the stop of the middle line of the Bollinger Channel. We test on a portfolio of all liquid American futures for the last 10 years.
As a result, the most optimal steel parameters — if for 5 days the price did not pass 1%, then close the position. These are extreme parameters — highest number of days and lowest percentage. And the further into the forest, the more firewood and the most unprofitable options were options with 1 And 2 days since 5,4,3 Percent. I.e, the more requests we have for fast profit growth in a short time after opening a position, the more we get a loss, and what is more indulgent to growth, the more tolerant of price stagnation after opening a position, the more we earn in the future. It turns out the opposite is true — the result is not what you were going to get, and the reverse.
Here is the increase in equity for 10 years, provided that if for 5 days after entry the price does not pass 1%, then close the position. Remind, this is the best result of those, who asked.
But the best result — this is the perfect result, therefore, you need to choose the average to get closer to reality. And the average result will be obtained under the condition — if the price is for 3 days after entering did not add at least 2%, then close the position.
And finally,, let's take a look at the result, when we simply do not take into account any minimum price movements for a certain time after opening a position. Just closes, as expected according to the crawling foot system (Bollinger Channel median line). And let the price behave in the intervals as it wishes — do not pay attention to her twitching. And we get the best option:
What conclusion? My so: foresee, whether the position is against us or for us — That's impossible. Now goes against us, in a second it can soar in our favor that it will not seem a little. Or vice versa. We can say that the first option happens much more often., it can be unfounded to assert the opposite, but it's better to check it out anyway, the benefit of programs for this business is now different — just choose. Otherwise, intuition can fail.…..
In this case, speculation about whether the price has stopped and therefore it is necessary to leave, whether the price has gone against us and therefore intervention is required, whether the price has risen so much that it is time to take profit and other subjective fantasies — only harm the system. That's why — opened a position, put a stop and turn off the computer so that your hands do not itch improve the system. We turn on the computer tomorrow, rearrange the crawling stop and turn it off again. And so every day :)
Results in numbers.
Obviously, what:
1. The statistics were spoiled by the last flight;
2. The maximum flight in points would not be so terrible if it were not for the shoulder taken and twice in a row
If we exclude these two stray deals, the statistics are still not rosy:
Average values of profit and loss in points are almost the same.
Considering reinvestment (working size increase) each subsequent elk will overlap several previous profits. But it should be the other way around.
Solution, as usual elementarone. You can leave losses at the same level, but profit should be given a chance to accumulate.
In trading, the right mindset is more important than anywhere else..
You come to work, which can take up to several years to learn.
Everyday stress.
To survive, you have to think right.
Keep repeating to yourself `` Tomorrow is a new day '', & quot; new market & quot;.
Helps a lot.
Otherwise you will turn sour. Or completely idiotic thoughts will appear like `` this is because of the puppeteers I lost money '', or `` this is all the market is to blame ''.
This is absolutely wrong. Therein, what you haven't earned, only you are to blame.
One guy has been trying to prove to me for a long time, what day trading did brokers come up with, to earn commission.
Man doesn't follow the rules. Experienced people try to help him, and he repeats the same thing. Therefore, it sits deep in…
Give all your best on 200% every working day is very hard.
Have a good rest. Have fun. Do not under any circumstances deprive yourself of rest..
Otherwise you won't last long. I say exactly.
If you work in a good mood – you will definitely survive and reach the goal.
1) tried to traditionally spend New Year's week outside the market, practically succeeded. had time during the pre-Christmas meetings (traditional gathering in the city of Z) see in a minute how the markets live, so getting back to work is not that interesting anymore.
2) how will you meet, so you will. 08-on the shores of the sea of azov (to keep the ice on the surface) – a year of missed opportunities; 09-Диканька (the same) – a year of missed opportunities, 10-no matter where, the main thing is that friends. let's live – We'll see.
3) did not insert the news about ISD in any way (here you need to ask , And (of course) ) because associations with 07, Evraz and.. exactly, so, what is next?)
4) from what I liked today: Colorado reduced the minimum salary to 7,25 with 7,28 (dollars per hour, ес-но) because the state is deflation 0,6% behind 09 year. Rosenberg says, that this is the first decrease in the minimum salary with 1938 of the year.
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5) whose numbers I don’t have, those with a delay, but still – Realization of Christmas dreams!
remember, when I just started to be interested in stock trading, downloaded all videos and books, that I could find. As a result, there was a mess in my head.. There was no clear picture and I had no idea, how to form it.
My friend started with me. We tried to figure it out together. During the meetings, they discussed who learned what terms, who understood what.
As time went, but there was no result.
When I first spoke with Alexander Mikhailovich Gerchik, immediately asked a question:
“Alexander Mikhailovich, porridge in my head, what to do? how to deal with it?”
Gerchik advised not to flog a fever, calm down, trade, analyze deals and gain experience, and that then everything will come by itself.
Now I got it, that he was absolutely right.
Beginners need to read fewer books about trading and trade more themselves..
This is the only way you can learn.
A very important point statistics – I also learned this from A.M.
This is the only way you organize everything., what's happening. What you get, does not work, what do you understand and do not understand.
After that, how do you have this clear picture, need to sit down and analyze.
It will not be difficult to find answers to all questions and solve all problems.
If there are no statistics – it will take several times longer to reach the final goal. This is a fact and you can't argue with it..
You can try, but you'll end up with the same thought.
What I want to say with all this? Don't bother with bullshit. Filter information. And work very hard.
Then everything will be fine with you.
Successful trades and a passing trend.
Banzai!
So Peugeot did. But if in the west, most logo corrections, за последнее время, мне понравилось, that in us, what Sber, that channel Russia…. and where only designers manage to find such fonts…
The first week of the new year presented a gift in the form of a very good lesson.
Statistics are depressing.
The result of the week is almost -67%. Taking into account the withdrawn funds, I lost half of my deposit.
My schedule is not much different from .
Don't wait until it's too late. Has become. well, almost became.
As an experiment, I arranged a debriefing and wrote down my comments.
Who cares, . By the way, who likes the idea of such debriefing — оставьте коммент, I will continue, if anything…
PS. Was, they read me even over the hill. I talked on Skype with one of…
I read what I could of your blog and I like your rules and what you have to say. Its hard sometimes to understand as I dont speak russian and the translation doesn treally fit sometimes :)
I usually will just have one of my female friends read it to me. I live in Macau and Singapore and there are a lot of russians here
Cool. Take this opportunity to, I say hello and will try to pay attention to the spelling, so as not to create difficulties for translators.
