I will express myself as popularly as possible.
Everyone has their own strategy, so I will put the idea in general, and you can already work out the details specifically for your trade.
Many, including myself, have system signals or separate formations., who have:
A plus: very high chance of triggering (profitable deal)
Minus: does not appear so often, and sometimes annoyingly rare.
Our task: make a plus from a minus, ie. make money on it.
If we have a statistical fact, that the system signal appears approximately 1 раз в неделю (allowable), means we can increase the number of profitable trades DAILY BETTING ON THAT, THAT THIS SIGNAL WILL NOT BE.
Ie. if you bet money every day, that the signal will not form, you will have a statistically positive mate. expectation.
After all, there can be no such thing, what if you start betting on, that your pattern won't form, then it will begin to form every day?? Даже если будет так – you will still earn. Just read to the end.
Specific example.
There is a trend in SP500. Such a protracted, terry trend. I clearly understand, what I must see on the chart, что бы сказать:”Yes, this is a reversal”.
The fact is, that the market was regularly close to it.. Ie. actually falling back in 2-3% at the right moment, and I would say:”Boys, шортнавсё!”. But it didn't happen all the time. And so for a very long time.
The fact is also, what's the trend – this is something rather tedious and time-consuming. And a trend reversal can only be 1, ie. this is a rare event.
That's why, if I opened long not only by system signals in long, and also in those moments, where the market was near the pivot point, betting on, что ее не случится – I would have a statistical advantage.
AGAIN: the main point is, what are we trying НЕ make deals WITHOUT SIGNAL. However, they can be done and done profitably., betting on, that there will be NO SIGNAL, if it does not form often.
Ie. I want to say, what do you actually have 2 way to buy :
1) System signal to long.
2) Seeing the overlapping system signal in short, place a bet, that it will never happen.
Statistically, if you make this bet often, having rare system signals – you will be in the black.
В чем польза?
Additional profitable signals. Ie. for example, system long entries according to the DAILY S trend&I didn't have a lot of P500. But the opportunity to buy from the bulldozer, but not far from the downward trend reversal point – it was fucking.
Ie. placing a bet, что её не случится.
The innovation for you is, that you can enter a profitable trade there, where you would never be logged in.
Money management:
By placing a bet, that your long-awaited signal will not be, you come in 50% from the usual trading volume. If, nevertheless, your signal is being formed, you take a loss from the first trade and enter your system signal already 100% торговым объемом.
In this way, You have 3 Options:
1) Make money on that, that the signal will not happen (very likely, because. they rarely appear).
2) Lose on this if the signal does happen, but!!!!! win back a loss, by going into it with a double volume. (very likely, because the signals are rare, but have a good chance of triggering)
3) Lose on both (unlikely, based on the characteristics of the system signals).
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Certainly, everyone trades differently and not all strategies can be applied. But here's to mine, for example, can, because. я на 90% I trade only according to the price chart.
Therefore, I have a great desire to test such inputs on the demo and see how profitable they are at a distance.. I advise you too.
