A month ago, analysts at Fusion Analytics Investment Partners, LLC, according to them. «посчастливилось» взять интервью у Джима Роджерса, who together with George Soros founded the Quantum Fund. Since Rogers does not draw his conclusions from the newspapers, government statistics, and figures from other analysts, and by analyzing that, what he saw with his own eyes on many years of travel, his view of things always seems to me personally quite interesting. Оригинальный текст интервью размещен на вебсайте . Translation further
"Legendary investor, writer, and traveler, Jim is currently one of the most respected and admired investors in the agricultural sectors., Metals, добычи полезных ископаемых, and energy.
Rogers and Soros founded Quantum Fund in 1973 year, and in subsequent 10 years their portfolio has earned 4200%. IN 1980 year, Rogers decided to "retire" and went on a motorcycle trip around the world; this was his first long retirement. With 1990 to 1992 of the year he traveled 6 continents on your motorcycle, having made the way to 100000 miles - this trip was later entered in the Guinness Book of Records. IN 1998 Rogers launched the Rogers International Commodity Index, ahead of a 10-year rally in commodity markets. IN 1999 he and his wife Paige Parker set off on their next journey, now on a specially made for them Mercedes, having traveled 116 countries on the way to 245000 kilometers in three years.
In December 2007 Rogers moved to Singapore and uttered his famous saying:"V 1807 smart people moved to London, in 1907 smart people moved to New York; smart people in 2007 move to Asia”. In February 2011 Rogers launched the Rogers World Resources Equity Index, new index fund, which aims to track leading companies in the agricultural sectors, metal mining, energy, and alternative sectors.
Jim wrote 6 books on the topic of investing and your travels around the world, включая самую последнюю , published this year. His views on the problems of the global economy and commodity markets are always in demand by analysts.
Fusion: I just finished reading your last Books Street Smarts, and I regret, that I didn't have her, when I first started in the financial industry in the 90s. It has amazing trading lessons, how, for example, always do your own analysis, and don't follow the crowd. Вы подчеркиваете, that in the early 70s no one was particularly fond of energy or stocks of military companies, but you performed your analysis and understood, that both sectors have the potential to generate huge profits. When you told other people about, that these sectors are promising, many were skeptical about this and considered you a madman. Всем известно, как все обернулось.
Rodgers: Никогда не идите вслед за толпой- you probably already learned this.
Fusion: China's growth is now slowing down, and many believe, that their reporting data overestimates the real growth of the economy. Wall Street Changes Its View Of China To Bearish And Trims Its Estimates Of The Growth Of Their GDP. Have an opinion, that China can no longer stimulate its own economy due to the real estate bubble. What do you think of it?
Rogers: Я не доверяю цифрам ни от каких правительств, because most of them are fictional, how do you, I guess, known. China has gone through an astounding period of growth, but they really have problems with housing and inflation. We had exactly the same problems in 19 century, when we were actively growing. Each country, going through a sharp period of growth, similar problems arise. Yes, recession is possible in China, but, say, there were also recessions in the USA, And 13 depression in 19 century, what did not stop them from being the greatest power of the 20th century. China is trying to slow down its growth, which is perfectly fair and very natural. They are preparing their economies for long-term growth at a pace, which they can constantly maintain. The only real problem, which could hinder China, that they will have a sharp shortage of water resources. There is a huge problem, and they are working very hard on it now. I think, they will solve it. Want to make a lot of money, find companies, who help China solve this problem. As for their stock market, it will be available to buy soon. I, for example, already made some purchases on Friday. Their market is getting closer to that point, where to buy it.
Fusion: Is the situation in their housing sector worsening due to the fact, that their exchange rate is not free?
Rogers: A great look at the problem. Their course is trapped. This is one of the things, in which I disagree with their government. A non-free currency creates an imbalance, which we see in the residential sector, because people need to invest money somewhere instead of currency. They are already taking some steps to free their currency and will continue to move in that direction..
Fusion: You warned for a long time, that governments and central banks refuse to make difficult decisions, choosing instead to print new money. All this leads to the destruction of the national financial system and leads to the problem of sovereign debt., which can lead to an increase in interest rates. Optimistic bulls argue, that central banks can keep interest rates low for as long as they like through the purchase of securities, and expanding your balances. What are the implications of continually expanding central bank balance sheets?
Rogers: Yes, Mister Bernanke considers, that you can inflate the balance sheet of the central bank, without negative consequences. Everything, what is being done to reduce the demand for a certain thing, will lead to a drop in its price. Same thing with the central bank. Securities prices will fall, respectively, interest rates will rise. We are in a global bond bubble situation. When it bursts, no one knows. And tried to sell bonds several times. The French were printing money in the 50s, Italians in the 60s. At some point, the market will no longer accommodate them., and bond prices will go down, while interest rates go up. We all have more money, than Bernanke and central banks, so at some point it will all happen.
Fusion: In recent 6 weeks, what is happening in the bond and securities markets of developing countries is somewhat frightening. Many people believe, what did it start, when the Fed first hinted at curtailing QE. Until these hints were there, investors actively placed money abroad, trying to catch higher interest rates there. Now, when the situation changes, liquidity began to leave the markets of emerging economies. What do you think of it?
Rogers: Как я уже сказал, bond markets around the world are in a bubble, for the reasons I have indicated. The bubble can take a long time to grow, and when it bursts, hard to say. But at some point, interest rates will go up, regardless of whether, how many bonds did the state buy. To tell, когда это будет, That's impossible. At the moment I'm short on junk bonds. In any market, such a frontier product will fly first., and it will be before, how the sovereign debt problem starts.
Fusion: When the stock market starts to crash and rates go up, what will happen to gold? You predicted a correction in this metal last year, when the price was much higher.
Rogers: Gold grew 12 consecutive years. I don't know any asset, which grew 12 consecutive years, so from a purely technical point of view, he has to fall a little more. But from a fundamental point of view, gold needs to be bought. Several factors harm him in the short term.: India is trying to restrict gold purchases, insofar as, along with oil, this is the reason for their trade deficit. I didn't sell that gold, которое у меня есть, and I plan to buy more, if it falls. And that, I really predicted a correction, sometimes I do it.
Fusion: Many people believe, that offshore development in the United States will solve our energy problems. Do you think, another hype?
Rogers: Think, Yes. As for natural gas, the situation with fundamental factors on the surface is far from rosy. The number of drilling rigs has decreased over the past couple of years by 75%, since their wells are not designed for long-term use, and keeping them in working order requires a huge investment. As for the oil shelves, conventional wells are pumped out on 38% already in the first year, which means, you need to keep drilling, to spend money, and keep the market price of the asset at a height, to maintain production capability. The investment world won't really like the idea of, that the potential supply in the oil market will prevail so much, that the price of it will collapse.
Fusion: What about other products, something else worth buying? You, for example, still love agricultural assets.
Rogers: Before, how do we move to agriculture, I would look at natural gas. Any product, the price of which has collapsed in a similar way, worth a closer look. Agriculture is a great long-term investment. We consume more than we produce in the past 10 years, therefore inventory is at historic lows. Agriculture itself has been a terrible business for several years., fewer and fewer farmers, average age in the United States 58 years, in Japan 66 years. There are no youth in this business. If nothing changes drastically, crisis awaits us, because this sector really needs new people. Automation won't save us.
Fusion: How about agricultural productivity?
Rogers: Most of Asia is not productive. Mao killed Chinese agriculture with his policies. India must be productive, but there are also absurd regulations, who limit the size of their farms. This is a terrible policy, which prevents farmers from earning anything. In recent years, suicide among Indian farmers is at the highest.
Fusion: Any thoughts on cotton?
Rogers: Cotton does not fall in price, because farmers planted less last year, while corn and grain prices have risen. It's just supply and demand.
Fusion: How do you think it will end in Japan? In tears?
Rogers: Think, Yes. Japan has a very serious problem. Mister Abe will destroy this state. Huge debt level, terrible demographic situation, they do not admit foreigners, population falls. And then Abe comes in and says, what will ruin the national currency. Long term tragedy, and it may not work in the short term, too.
Fusion: Will PIIGS countries withdraw from Euro, to devalue your currencies and improve your competitiveness?
Rogers: In just a few years, the Euro will look very different. Devaluation- temporary solution to the problem. Europe has tried to devalue its currencies for decades, безуспешно. They are, certainly, can keep doing that, what they do, but it will only make them poorer. Only real structural changes can improve their economies. I cannot blame the hardworking Germans for their unwillingness to pay for the Spaniards drinking wine on the sunny beach, итальянцев, and Greeks.
Fusion: Will China suffer, as a consequence of problems in Japan and in the West in general?
Rogers: China is the largest lender in the world, у них очень много денег, and they build the domestic economy. They're in their best shape, than others. Of course, they will have problems, if the whole world has problems, as it was during the financial crisis. US and European markets are too large consumer sites. But I'd rather be a lender, than the debtor in this situation.
Fusion: Druckenmiller warns of rising US interest rates, is it possible to, that China will dump some of the US debt, which they keep? Что Вы думаете?
Rogers: If you distribute something, what have you, you can get into debt, which will only grow, and there is no one to pay these debts. USA is now the largest debtor in world history. Only half here pay taxes- it's just absurd. All the debts are in the west, and all loans in the east ... About China, it is high time for them to begin to free themselves from American bonds.
Fusion: Какие-то светлые стороны есть в сложившейся ситуации? Singapore, for example, moving in the right direction?
Rogers: Hope, what "yes, that's why I moved here. Singapore is on track. Income tax низок, incentives to save large, interest rates on savings are high, and they do everything, what they can, to raise capital and create jobs. Certainly, now many problems are brought here by emigrants, but this has been the case with many nations historically. Generally, everything is fine in Singapore, and it gradually becomes the new Switzerland, because it is located next to China, and helps to solve many offshore problems, what Switzerland and Cyprus were doing. In the coming 10 years it will become the fastest growing financial center in the world.
Fusion: Thanks for a great interview.!”
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