The escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran, which has begun 13 June 2025 of the year, caused significant shocks in world financial markets. Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities and Iranian energy infrastructure, including the South Pars gas field, as well as Iranian reciprocal attacks provoked a sharp increase in oil prices, The collapse of stock indices and increased interest in assets-refugees. Based on current data and analysis of the geopolitical situation, a detailed review of the consequences of the conflict escalation and forecast for July are presented below. 2025 of the year.
Conflict escalation and oil market: Handstone jump and threat of the Ormuzian Strait
Current situation:
The escalation of the conflict has led to an increase in oil prices Brent to 6%, reaching $74,23 for barrel - maximum in five months. Main Factors:
- Interruptions in deliveries from Iran (about 3,8 million barrels per day, or 4% world production, According to OPEC).
- The threat of closing the Ormuzian Strait, through which passes 20% global oil (21 million barrels per day, loud EIA).
- Peak growth on 13% 13 June 2025 years after impacts on the infrastructure of Iran.
Forecast for July 2025:
- With the escalation of the conflict: Brent prices can reach $ 85–95 per barrel, With a risk of growth to $ 100-110 (Rating JPMorgan: to $120 With the worst script). Probability: 40%.
- In deescalations: Stabilization at $ 68–73 per barrel, With a return to $ 69–70. Probability: 50%.
- Additionally: Reserve capacity OPEC+ (5 million barrels per day) They can soften the deficit, But activation will take 2-3 weeks.
Conflict escalation and stock markets: collapse and redistribution of capital
Current situation:
The escalation of the conflict caused the collapse of global stock indices:
- S&P 500: -1,1%, current level 5200 points (with 5260).
- Dow Jones: -1,8%, current level 41,500 points (with 42,260).
- Nasdaq: -1,3%, current level 18,200 points (with 18,440).
- Nikkei 225: -1,2%, current level 38,700 points (with 39,170).
- Hang Seng: -0,8%, current level 20,600 points (with 20,765).
Energy (ExxonMobil +2,5%, Chevron +2,1%) and defense companies (Lockheed Martin +3,8%) showed growth.
Forecast for July 2025:
- With the escalation of the conflict: S&P 500: 4900–4700 points (-5–10%), Dow Jones: 39,000–37,000 points (-6–11%), Nasdaq: 17,100–16,200 points (-6–11%), Nikkei 225: 36,400–34,500 points (-6–11%), Hang Seng: 19,300–18,300 points (-6–11%). Probability: 40%.
- In deescalations: S&P 500: 5250–5300 points (+1–2%), Dow Jones: 42,000–42,500 points (+1–2%), Nasdaq: 18,400–18,600 points (+1–2%), Nikkei 225: 39,000–39,500 points (+1–2%), Hang Seng: 20,800–21,000 points (+1–2%). Probability: 50%.
- Additionally: US duties (April 2025) enhance pressure on the Asian markets.
Conflict and gold escalation: The increase in demand for assets-refuge
Current situation:
The escalation of the conflict prompted the price of gold to 1,4% to $3426 per ounce (maximum $3500,05 in April 2025), Thanks to geopolitical instability and purchases of central banks (China +12% reserves c 2024 year).
Forecast for July 2025:
- With the escalation of the conflict: Growth up to $ 3500–3600 per ounce (+2–5%). Probability: 40%.
- In deescalations: Stabilization of $ 3350-3400 for a ounce (-1–2%). Probability: 50%.
- Additionally: Strengthening the dollar may limit growth.
Conflict escalation and US dollar: Strengthening the currency-refuge
Current situation:
US dollar index (DXY) grew up on 0,5% to 98,131 Due to the escalation of the conflict, geopolitical tension and expectations of toughening politics FED (Inflation in the USA: 3,8% in May 2025).
Forecast for July 2025:
- With the escalation of the conflict: Dxy will grow to 100-102 points (+2–4%). Probability: 40%.
- In deescalations: Stabilization at 97–98 points (-1–0%). Probability: 50%.
- Additionally: Fitness of 10-year US bonds (4,2%) Supports the dollar.
Long -term risks of conflict escalation and the role of the United States
Long -term consequences:
- Oil crisis: Reduction of supply by 5-10%, Prices up to $ 120-150 per barrel (Goldman Sachs).
- Inflation: 1-2% growth due to energy carriers.
- Supply chains: Deficiency of goods, Especially in Asia (oil imports to China: 11 million barrels per day).
The role of the United States:
President Donald Trump called Iran to negotiations, But the prospects are unclear:
- Sanctions against Iran (probability: 60%).
- Military participation of the United States (probability: 20%).
- Diplomacy (probability: 30%).
The final forecast of the conflict escalation for July 2025
| Active | Current value | Escalation | De -establishment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil (Brent) | $74,23/Barr. | $85–95 (up to $ 100-110) | $68–73 |
| S&P 500 | 5200 points | 4900–4700 points | 5250–5300 points |
| Dow Jones | 41,500 points | 39,000–37,000 points | 42,000–42,500 points |
| Nasdaq | 18,200 points | 17,100–16,200 points | 18,400–18,600 points |
| Nikkei 225 | 38,700 points | 36,400–34,500 points | 39,000–39,500 points |
| Hang Seng | 20,600 points | 19,300–18,300 points | 20,800–21,000 points |
| Gold | $3426/ion | $3500-3600 / ounce | $3350-3400 / ounce |
| US Dollar (DXY) | 98,131 points | 100–102 points | 97–98 points |
Recommendations for the escalation of conflict for investors
Short -term actions:
- Buying assets-guides: gold ($3350–3600), US Dollar (DXY 97–102), Swiss frank.
- Investments in the energy sector: Exxonmobil shares, Chevron.
- Hedging: oil futures, Options for gold.
Long -term strategies:
- Diversification of portfolios.
- Monitoring of the Strait of the Strait and Actions of the United States.
- Preparation for toughening the Fed Policy (bid: 4,75%).
Conclusion of the escalation of conflict
The escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran, Started 13 June 2025 of the year, dramatically changed the dynamics of financial markets, causing an increase in oil prices and gold, Strengthening the dollar and decline in stock indices. With further exacerbation, the oil crisis and inflation threatens, while de -escalation can stabilize the situation by July 2025 of the year. It is important for investors to be careful, monitor geopolitics and diversify assets.