IN 2010 And 2011 optimists used the argument of 'excess cash on company balance sheets" to justify, why are they optimistic. Naturally, the argument did not work, and he himself was never wealthy, even in theory. Now, according to my observation, it is no less popular, but pessimists, takes on the 'political uncertainty' argument.
Самое смешно, that the event chain looks like this:
1) some commentator 'sees" growth of the US economy by 3%+ in 2010-2013, as the most important argument – excess cash; 2) the slowdown in the economy goes unnoticed and catches by surprise; 3) with fright, the commentator becomes a pessimist; 4) but the & quot; cache argument" you need to somehow explain and justify. поэтому что? right, political uncertainty restrains this very cash on the balances.
What I know about, how people make decisions, tells me about, what a post 2008 trauma has a much greater influence on decision making, than the concept of rational expectations implies. Not expecting the future affects mood, and the recent past – especially not a return to the usual average. The new norm scares people, not evil (глупые) Policy.
In 2013, beware of arguments, who pose 'uncertainty" in a prominent place.
This does not mean, what a good year. The risks are just not there, where commentators speak.
