Hello. Here I am looking at the gold, I look and think – so, what is next? Up or down?
Over the past decade, this metal has increased in value from 260 dollars to 1430 per troy ounce, i.e in 5.5 Times.
Schedule gold
It looks like another global bubble, which periodically happens to one or another object of the capital market. Сейчас на золоте at weekly TF образовывается медвежье поглощение, which, I think, к концу недели еще усилится. This is not the first call. Earlier we observed similar models., so a strong pattern is drawn on the daily chart «Three Buddhas».
Провел regression channel, no matter how I stretch it with standard settings, for what period do not take – the price rests on the upper limit, but it is rather like that, by the way. I am much more interested in the question – will gold really be deflated now or will it start to rise again after a temporary respite?
I accidentally came across an article by some trader., где он рассуждает о дальнейшем развитии некоторых ключевых товаров, including gold. He has in all three models (pessimistic, normal and optimistic) gold «anyway will reach 2000» per ounce. На мой взгляд как только trader начинает рассуждать в таком стиле, as if he already knew the future- here he is covered as an analyst and as a trader. Don't pass off your assumptions as a Divine plan. And for me this is a signal to, that people have lost their sense of reality and it's time to think about a long-term gold short.
Known, that in investment form there is only 18% gold, mined by mankind in the entire history of mankind, and the volume of investment capital markets exceeds this amount of yellow metal available for investment by hundreds of times, at the same time, a decrease in profitability in the stock and bond markets, what we saw during the crisis, promotes the flow of money into «gold sector» and a critical shortage of metal begins to appear.
I do not think, that the state of affairs on stock market and bond market just as hopeless, how it was a year or two ago, so it is possible to use the braking of the gold rally and as an outflow of investment demand. Certainly, several months of marking time – nothing for those foundations and institutions, who are investing investor funds, но глобальный разворот всегда начинается с малого. From some inconspicuous candle, like a shooting star, absorption, curtain… How it was after the wheat rally a couple of years ago. So there was seasonal growth, а здесь – десятилетие! To catch such a turn – the highest aerobatics, not everyone can do this, but Jesse Livermore would catch, I think.
So think, and I'm in shorts already. Although I do not count on the long term yet, but let's see. Quite 800-1000 можем увидеть.
