Participated in a discussion with day traders and their sympathizers on stockportale
http://www.2stocks.ru/forum/index.php?showtopic=15752&st=40
Here's the gist of it:
QUOTE(pattern @ Apr 30 2011, 16:51 PM)
do you seriously think that a day trader can have a random series of successful trades lasting at least 1 week ?
Yes, I take it seriously, but, certainly, only if he has a sequence of actions. For example, well-known Alexei Martyanov, which in the traders' competition, if I'm not mistaken, six months, made fantastic interest in 2008 year in the well-known phase of the market. But then the phase, naturally, changed and this is where the whole fantasy ended.
QUOTE(pattern @ May 2 2011, 07:45 AM)
count, what is the probability of getting a long series of successful trades at random… (that is, from trade to trade, the correct actions of the trader are randomly repeated and `` favorably" added up hundreds of variable parameters, including. and market)
Well, you can argue about this endlessly., each bringing his own conjectures and assumptions. That's why, really, you just need to check with an example, fortunately now there are a lot of programs, which allow you to do it.
I personally, I use the WealthLab program. Setting the simplest script for 5-minute SP500 futures (so to speak, universal tool):
1. We buy randomly.
2. Closing a position randomly.
Click on the button and immediately get a random result. The result is not very, so we press the button again and get the second random result. This one is already better:
What do we see — we see, what trader, started its game in April 2009 years and playing from the bulldozer had an unusually good period during 8 Months, as a result of which he believed that he had caught trading by the tail, felt like a genius, and now will always win. But, passed 8 months and luck vanished — not that I started losing, but also stopped winning. After a while, he realized that he couldn't earn much by trading., Isn't it better to open your own near-trading business under the guise of your oversuccess for 8 months of luck.
З.Ы. By the way, if you think that when you play from the bulldozer, the account is always drained, then, IMHO, you are wrong. remember, there were attempts somewhere on the Internet for a dispute to drain the account, who will do it faster, but so no one leaked, as long as I remember.
Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh out: But I tried to press the button further and for the ninth or tenth time it turned out to be a generally successful period for random trading for two years. This person will already be considered a Guru with a capital letter and will give expensive lectures about his supposedly legitimate trading.
