Will there be a second wave of the crisis?

Will there be a second wave of the crisis? This question worried everyone, starting with the first wave and during the rather epic stock market crash in August 2011 conversations broke out with renewed vigor. From the position of the government, central banks and bankers the second wave of the crisis is NOT needed and I will explain why. 2011 the year is significantly different from 2008.

Then in 2008 the US government has applied all possible conditions, to provoke a crisis, and not just provoking a minor stock market crash, and yes, so that no one seems a little. The system began to go wild after, how was it accepted in 99 году Gramm-Leach-Bliley Financial Services Modernization Act, who untied the hands of the bankers, further complete disregard for the abnormal proliferation of derivatives, ban on discussing the topic of bankers' shoulders, mortgage bubble. They just ignored these problems., and any hints of journalists were suppressed by the functionaries in the bud. No one seriously discussed this topic and was not interested in the gap in the growth rates of the financial system and the real economy.. The same Ben said, that guys don't worry - the real estate market is healthy and will always grow. The system was riddled with lies, totally. Everyone lied, but now not about that.

Seems absurd, after all, the task of the government is not to catalyze the crisis, and its prevention, or in the worst case, mitigate and deal with the consequences. However, in 2008 everything possible was done, to bang with a grandiose spread. When they understood, that we have gone too far with mortgage pools, then conditions were needed, allowing to recapitalize the banking system, restructure mortgage portfolios, where the greatest shit is on central bank balances and so on.

A crisis 2008 was needed, how to cleanse the system after years of mortgage madness. But they allowed in the last 5 years 2 fundamental mistakes. The first is a reassessment of the possibility of expanding debt and mortgage pools., in consequence of which someone was needed, who would cause the collapse of the system and that someone was Lehman. More precisely was chosen. The second mistake is underestimating the consequences for the real economy.. In the US government and Wall St model, there was, that after the crisis 2008 they would lower rates, pumped liquidity and the economy would start like this, how in 2001 year. They evaluated the system in the context of the experience of dealing with the crisis. 2001 and made a mistake. The economy did not start.

After Lehman's bankruptcy, Henry Paulson exuded the energy of a person whose appearance can be said "oh yes, did everything, right. ”There was more joy on his face, than on the face of a bum, lottery winner 1 million bucks. And this is a man, which is responsible for the state of the financial system! )) After two years, no joy is visible. Geithner and Bernanke look confused, подавленность, excitement. They understand, what made a mistake, significant slip, but besides, they don't know, what to do and how to be.

I told you about bangsters and that, that they control everything? It's true., but I meant the limits of the financial system. They can really do anything, anything, starting from a pretty crazy rally 9 Months, ending with the schizoid freaks of the index of the last days, when during the session we flew to 700 points. They can paint any quotes and news background, absolutely any up to a tick. But they CANNOT control the economy, they are completely helpless in this regard. It's out of their area of ​​expertise., but even this is not the main thing, а основное то, that even if you really wanted to, then couldn’t do anything. Monetary methods no longer act on structurally damaged machinery. Plus, the economy itself is too complex, to apply discrete models, working in the banking system. Too many too different economic agents.

A clear proof of this is the state of the US economy.. For the banking system, the better the economy, all the better, therefore, a protracted recession in the real sector is NOT beneficial for them in any way. What does a recession mean for banks? Low demand for loans, and low demand for loans lack of profit for banks. The depressed mood among consumers and the lack of opportunity and desire to spend money leads to a slowdown in technological progress, stopping business projects, investments from companies, which also affects banks, because. most of the investment takes place on borrowed money.

Overall economic activity slows down, the system shrinks, deleveraging tendency, deflation also provokes problems in the banking system, which is inherently tailored for the permanent growth of assets. In addition, for the bankers it hurts, that not only is there a credit crunch, but also significant problems in attracting customers, That (Problems) very clearly exposed during the QE2 program.

The market is growing, the news background is just super, and investor sentiment is bad. Not, the speculators' sentiment is off the charts, but for the first time in a long time, funds and banks are faced with, that long investment funds of clients began to be absent in the system, ie. there was no external large-scale business and there was not even retail. The situation is very difficult, because. it has become more difficult to raise money. Developing countries are still nothing, but in the developed situation, this is a difficult matter.

So what is the dangerous second wave of the crisis for banks?? She, swallow up the financial system like a black hole. There are no more levers for monetary stimulation and impact. Looking at the Fed Funds Rate, then in the last 30 years they have always been declining and have reached zero at the moment, only negative rates ahead, what is contrary to the credit paradigm. And pouring money into the system does not solve anything and does not help much., as evidenced by experience, at least, last QE. Fiscal liberalization capped by debt expansion cap, therefore, governments are no longer able to borrow money in the amount of, which was possible in the first wave of the crisis. For debts are running out, you have to pay the bills, no one will give new debts. Monetize? Destruction of the currency and the debt market and the further, то тем хуже. Ie. during the second wave of the crisis, there will be no funds to overcome the crisis. If in 2008 firstly there were funds, and secondly there were hopes, then in the new crisis there will be nothing and it will become a real depression.
The second wave of the crisis will simply destroy the economy, many companies go bankrupt, industry will rise, unemployment will rise, there will be food riots. For banks, the second wave of the crisis is extremely dangerous. IN 2008 year they were carried, no one particularly demanded lynching the bangsters, but if it fucks again, then they can't run away. The public will demand retribution, which will result in loss of confidence in banks. And as you all know, the banking system is based only on trust, and if he is gone, then everything is the end. So they'll do their best, to prevent the second wave of the crisis, otherwise, the financial system will face the most significant reform in history. Ie. the system format can be completely changed, власть, spheres of influence and so on, and it makes no sense for bankers to risk their power and influence.

But that is not all. They may or may not allow, but who said, that the system will not go into gear by itself? Are there any guarantees that, that the point of no return can be avoided, maybe we have already passed it? Maybe there is no turning back? One moment confuses me and in bankers' slang it is called "lost control of the yield curve". This means, when the Central Bank intervenes in the course of trading, but no effect. What confuses me, that the ECB's actions have absolutely no effect, ie. do not improve the situation at all. It seems to be logical, but there is a suspicion, that they still start to lose control. Short-term stabilization and re-exacerbation.

The situation in Europe itself is extremely dangerous, and although in part it was artificially provoked to maintain the status quo between the United States and Europe, ie. in the same way you can destroy any country. Than Italy is worse than the USA or England? Yes, nothing, shit in bulk everywhere. Ie. also England may be attacked. But everyone understands, that it is impossible to flood the system with liquidity forever, it will not be possible to subsidize Greece every year for 50% from its GDP. They will never pay off their debts, а Италия? She is in 10 times more. Who will save her? В том то и дело, that nobody!

Putting out a fire with kerosene does not solve structural problems, but only buys time, delay is just!

Ie. there is an inner premonition that, that the system went downhill and got off the brakes. Yes, они могут контролировать stock market (draw quotes at your discretion), долговой рынок, may affect foreign exchange, but still, some questions are beyond their control. They are incapable of solving economic and budgetary problems.. Bangsters play brilliantly in their sandbox, but they are still not gods. A question deep in the abyss, ie. when the trough thrown from the top of the cliff hits the ground?