baseline: judging by the sentiment indicators, there is no shortage of optimists. in the same time, a frank excess of optimism is also not visible.
what does it mean: pushing back the pessimists, which has been happening since summer 2012 the year can be considered complete. in principle can be considered, that the process ended in December.
следствие: the driver played himself. as a result, either the following driver should appear, for example great reallocation, or it's time to switch to something pessimistic.
subtleties and nuances: one of the main rules for working with sentiment indicators – they do not show the direction of travel, they suggest the right moment in time to switch attention. for that, to look down on risky assets, you need to see exactly where the market is wrong. this is exactly the problem – I do not see any radical misconceptions in action at the moment. there are complaints about the expectations of economic growth, but they have not yet reached a frenzy state.
what's next: eventually, seems, that for a good condition correction they are still not ripe. the market is of course weakened and in case of shocks it will not resist, but who knows what shocks await us? therefore, either long-term consolidation / topization must await us, or acceleration after light correction, which will undermine optimism among retail. in the second case, through some 3-4 months will ripen overheating of sentiment on the basis of overestimated expectations from the efficiency of developing countries and the end of deleveraging in the United States. then we will be scared again, following the example of the last few years.
