One of the authors of the nutblocker website, VodkaHaze, pleased with a very interesting material about the "black swans" . This theory was created by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and considers events that are difficult to predict.. Happy reading!
"I just finished reading" Black Swan "by Nassim Taleb. Great book, which talks about accidents and unpredictable events. Everytime, when i learn something new, then I want to bring it to life, because knowledge without possible application is useless (if you don't believe, then ask about work with masters of philosophy).
Let's remember the event, known in the community as Black Friday. Для большинства «чёрная пятница» будет великолепным примером события из серии «чёрного лебедя». «Чёрный лебедь» – this is such an event, which is a complete surprise, has serious consequences, and afterwards it seems to many, that its origin could be easily predicted. A crisis 2008 of the year, Act of terrorism 9/11 would be good examples too.
To understand, why did we suddenly remember 9/11 in this matter, then we present to your attention a certain Bob. Боб был профессиональным трейдером на фондовой бирже с хорошей дисциплиной и большим преимуществом. He kept all the money in stock. You know, что произошло дальше. Here schedule his financial condition:
This is a typical timeline for a black swan event. (another possibility is the incredible upward swing). All, what happened before the "event", was boring and predictable, though something, certainly, remained unpredictable. All financial risks and odds can be calculated using the most common statistics. It is possible to calculate the statistical risk of bankruptcy, if you adhere to a certain management and several other indicators. Since there was no particular reason for a professional to go bankrupt before Black Friday, then we will not discuss it.
The event itself is more interesting, because from Bob's position you could not predict, что такое может произойти. Actually, the longer the first part of the graph, the less and less the likelihood, that an event from the category of "black swan" will occur (we have a larger sample of that, that nothing happens).
But how do we use this information? We cannot use normal math and science, to anticipate such events, as they go against, what the statistical analysis says. I decided to lower my level of thinking a little to solve this problem..
I will give a quote, which illuminates the concept well, which I thought about:
"The only thing, what do you really possess, these are your actions ". Тхить Нят Хань
We spend most of our lives in peace, which looks pointless, if you look at it with a simple mind. If I told my dog, that I can change the numbers on my computer for food, cars and squeaky toys, then the dog would look at me like an idiot, because he does not understand English. Jokes aside, but for my dog the only one, what does she have, are her actions. Owning something is something moving for my dog, in his understanding my things become his, as soon as he takes them away.
We're so caught up in all the social wisdom, that we often forget to return to reality. Black Swan events are a brutal reality check. Bob is back in reality, when black friday happened. In the course of time he forgot, that his numbers on the computer will no longer give him the opportunity to shop.
Just because, that we cannot calculate the odds of strange events, does not mean, like we can't try to guess, what events can happen, and which ones are not. You just need to think realistically. For example, there are some unexpected events, which would lead to the loss of "everything" on my account tomorrow:
1) I will be hacked, and I will not be able to recover the money
2) The stock will be closed and declared bankrupt
3) Чёрная пятница 2
On the other hand, I don't see any positive black swans, which could happen to my money . In other words, chance of that, that tomorrow morning, five million dollars will appear on my account, which I could take off and spend, Is 0%. Bad events are obvious enough to me, but no good ones are foreseen on the horizon. And that means, that you shouldn't put all your eggs in one basket, that is, to keep all our financial condition in one place, since there is no passive return from keeping our money here, No, но завтра (or through 15 years) we can wake up bankrupt. There will be no reverse situation.
I'll leave you to think about possible negative and positive black swans., that can happen to your money in your bank account or under the bed, holding in the form of shares, венчурных инвестиций, in bitcoins or investing in real estate (the latter have the ability to breed a positive black swan).
Our goal will be to get into the situation, where the black swan is possible, and minimize situations, where negative can happen ".
