в целом, это хорошо известный факт, что инфляционные ожидания не угадывают инфляцию. разве, что с горизонтом в несколько месяцев. для очередной иллюстрации небольшой отчет:
We proposed a model free procedure to assess the relationship between the break-even and future inflations. We showed that the break-even inflation is informative about future inflation over horizons of 3, 6, 24 and 30 months. For the 3- and 6-month horizons, besides being informative, break-even inflation is an unbiased estimator as well. However, over the horizons of 24 and 30 months, the relationship between the break-even and future inflations is negative. On the other hand, for the horizons of 12 and 18 months, breakeven inflation has almost no power to explain future inflation. These results indicate that policymakers and market participants should be very careful in using break-even inflation as a proxy for future movements in price indexes.
