Several analysts have poured cold water on the BDI’s prescience, though, given some obvious distortions. It takes about three years to build fresh capacity and, because the peak of the commodities bubble was two to three years ago, new ships are now depressing charter rates. The global fleet has expanded by about a quarter this year alone. For now, other indicators of commodities demand trump the BDI.
…
Nevertheless, recent weekly figures indicate a cooling-off of traffic even though they overlap with shutdowns of many car factories this time last year. Further deterioration during the summer would confirm softening demand for basic materials. The Baltic Dry may temporarily be all wet, but underlying demand for commodities remains an excellent leading indicator of economic activity and should not be ignored.