Top 10 Economic Events
1. EUR- Germany IFO Institute Business Climate and Expectations Index, a leading indicator of economic conditions and business expectations in the Euro-zone’s largest economy, and Euro-zone Composite Manufacturing and Services PMI- Purchasing Managers Indexes, two leading indicators of economic conditions measuring the activity of purchasing managers in the manufacturing and services sectors, Mon., Feb. 21, 4:00 am, ET.
Following a positive ZEW sentiment survey, the German IFO index is expected to maintain the optimistic outlook with a reading of 110.2 in February, compared with 110.3 in the previous month. The preliminary flash estimate of the Euro-zone Composite PMI could demonstrate strength in the Euro-zone economy with the index rising to 56.9 in February from 56.3 in January.
2. USD- U.S. Consumer Confidence Index of consumers’ outlook on present and future economic conditions, Tues., Feb. 22, 10:00 am, ET.
The trend of improvement in the confidence of U.S. consumers could continue with the index forecast to register a reading of 61.5, compared with 60.6 in the previous month.
3. GBP- Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee Meeting Minutes, a comprehensive report of the central bank’s meeting that could provide an outlook on the economy, interest rates and future monetary policy, Wed., Feb. 23, 4:30 am, ET.
Stubbornly high inflation and the threat of economic slowdown as a result of the U.K. government’s massive spending cuts create a difficult situation for the Bank of England policy makers. The minutes are expected to confirm that, despite of the rising inflationary pressures, the Monetary Policy Committee was not in any hurry to hike interest rates. However, if more policy makers have joined the camp of the two “rate hawks” Andrew Sentance and Martin Weale, the market could continue to price expectations for an interest rate increase in the near future.
4. USD- U.S. Existing Home Sales, the main gauge of the condition of the U.S. housing market measuring the number of closed sales of previously constructed homes, condominiums and co-ops, Wed., Feb. 23, 10:00 am, ET.
After a better-than-expected housing starts report, the sales of existing homes could also inch higher to 5.3 M in January from 5.28 M in December.
5. USD- U.S. Durable Goods Orders, a leading indicator of economic activity measuring durable goods orders placed with domestic manufacturers, and U.S. Jobless Claims, an important gauge of employment trends and labor market conditions, Thurs., Feb. 24, 8:30 am, ET.
Despite of the significant 2.3% m/m drop in December, the U.S. orders for durable goods are expected to rebound with an increase of 2.4% m/m in January. First-time applications for unemployment benefits are forecast to reach 405K, slightly lower that the reading of 410K in the previous week. To indicate a significant decline in unemployment, economists estimate that jobless applications would need to fall to 375K or below.
6. USD- U.S. New Home Sales, an important gauge of housing market conditions measuring the number of newly constructed homes with a committed sale during the previous month, Thurs., Feb. 24, 10:00 am, ET.
The U.S. new home sales could register a small increase by up to 330K in January from 329K in December. However, considering the bad winter weather conditions in a number of U.S. states, the potential for weaker-than-expected new and existing home sales should not be excluded.
7. JPY- Japan CPI- Consumer Price Index, the main measure of inflation preferred by the Bank of Japan, Thurs., Feb. 24, 6:30 pm, ET.
Although deflation could persist with the inflation gauge expected to stay below 0% for another month, the Japanese economy could see inflationary pressures rising a bit as the CPI registers a smaller 0.3% y/y decline in January from -0.4% y/y in December.
8. GBP- U.K. GDP- Gross Domestic Product, the main measure of economic activity and growth, Fri., Feb. 25, 4:30 am, ET.
The revised estimate of the U.K. Q4 GDP should confirm that the U.K. economy contracted by 0.5% q/q in the fourth quarter compared with the 0.8% q/q expansion in Q3 2010.
9. USD- U.S. GDP- Gross Domestic Product, the main measure of economic activity and growth in the world’s largest economy, Fri., Feb. 25, 8:30 am, ET.
This main spotlight economic event of the week will bring the second estimate of the U.S. Q4 GDP which is forecast to revise the U.S. economic growth higher by 3.3% in the fourth quarter of 2010, up from the preliminary estimate of 3.2% and faster than the 2.5% growth in the third quarter.
10. USD- U.S. Consumer Sentiment, the University of Michigan’s monthly survey of 500 households on their financial conditions and outlook of the economy, Fri., Feb. 25, 9:55 am, ET.
Consumers in the U.S. are expected to remain optimistic with a revised consumer sentiment index reading of 75.4 in February, up from the previous 75.1 estimate.
Headlines
Oil, Gold Gain, Asian Stocks Decline as Tensions Escalate in Middle East
Oil climbed and gold advanced to a seven-week high, while Asian stocks snapped a three-day rally as Middle East tensions escalated.
Krawcheck Slaps Cut-Pay Garden Leave on BofA Advisers After Broker Defects
Bank of America Corp. , which lost a financial adviser with $5.9 billion in client assets to a rival in December, told some workers to sign agreements forcing them to go on reduced-pay “garden leave” if they plan to resign.
Stokes Plans $2 Billion Media Merger as Tycoons Vie for Advertising Funds
Billionaire Kerry Stokes will merge two of his companies in a $2 billion deal to form Australia’s largest media company as the nation’s tycoons vie to capitalize on the rebound in advertising spending.
NYSE Chief Surmounts Leak That Thwarted Earlier Merger Attempt
High above 52nd Street in Manhattan last week, in conference rooms at the law firm of Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz LLP, word of the leak spread quickly.
Bentall Kennedy’s Planned Apartments. U.S. Apartment Construction Climbs With More Renters
Bentall Kennedy plans to break ground by June on a 654-unit luxury-apartment complex in downtown Seattle, a $200 million wager by the real estate firm that it will be cheaper to build than buy as the foreclosure crisis drives up demand for U.S. rental properties.
Daimler’s Bernhard Trades Tomahawk for Mercedes Assembly Lines
Wolfgang Bernhard , production chief at Mercedes-Benz, has made four trips to central Hungary since rejoining the Daimler AG management board a year ago. His career depends on a factory being built on the region’s sandy soil.
Daewoo to Build 10 Record-Size Container Ships for Maersk
A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S, the biggest container line, agreed to order 10 record-sized ships in a deal worth about 2 trillion won ($1.8 billion) because of rising fuel prices and expanding global trade.
Spain’s Tougher Rules on Capital to Provide Boon for IPO Bankers, Lawyers
Spain’s decision to force lenders to meet stricter capital rules or risk state ownership will provide a boon to bankers and lawyers helping them raise funds with stock market listings and asset sales.
Market News
Stocks
Asia Stocks Drop on China Tightening; Oil Rises as Mid-East Unrest Spreads
Asian stocks fell, snapping three days of gains, after China implemented further measures to counter inflation, tempering gains by oil producers amid spreading unrest in the Middle East and North Africa.
Vietnam Stocks Drop Most Since 2009 on Rising Inflation Concern
Vietnam’s stocks tumbled the most since November 2009 after the government said it will raise electricity prices by 15.3 percent, spurring concern the government will step up measures to curb inflation.
HSBC Recommends Avoiding China Stocks Until Second Half 2011
HSBC Holdings Plc recommended investors avoid China’s stocks until at least June because the government will announce more policy measures to cool inflation.
First Solar, General Mills, OfficeMax: U.S. Equity Preview
Shares of the following companies may have unusual moves in U.S. trading on Feb. 22. U.S. stock exchanges are closed tomorrow for the Presidents Day holiday. Stock symbols are in parentheses.
Commodities
Gold Climbs to 7-Week High, Silver to Highest in Three Decades on Mideast
Gold gained to the highest level in seven weeks and silver rose to the most in more than 30 years as Middle East unrest lured investors. Palladium reached a 10-year peak and silver was the most expensive versus gold since 1998.
Surging Food Costs, Unrest in Middle East May Drive Growth in Stockpiles
Governments worldwide will increase their role in global food markets and may boost stockpiles and subsidies or impose trade curbs to head off the protests that have rippled through the Middle East, commodity traders said.
Copper Erases Decline in London, New York as Oil, Gold Rally on Tensions
Copper erased losses, gaining alongside other commodities including oil and gold, as geopolitical tensions escalated. Aluminum and nickel reached their highest levels since 2008.
BHP’s CEO Kloppers Has M&A on List Even After Investment Pledge
BHP Billiton Ltd. Chief Executive Officer Marius Kloppers said he’s still interested in takeovers even after setting aside $80 billion for BHP’s own projects.
Rubber Increases as Oil Climbs on Escalating Middle East Unrest
Rubber gained after crude oil jumped on concern that civil unrest across the Middle East and North Africa may disrupt shipments, boosting the cost of making rival synthetic products. The cash price in Thailand rose to a record.
Crude Oil Rises as Spreading Unrest in Middle East Prompts Supply Concern
Oil for April delivery rose for a fourth day in New York as violence escalated in Libya, bolstering concern supplies will be disrupted as turmoil spreads through the Middle East and North Africa.
Currencies
Yen, Dollar Advance as Middle East Tensions Spur Demand for Safer Assets
The yen and dollar strengthened versus most major counterparts as concern that unrest in the Middle East will spread boosted demand for safer assets.
G-20 Overcomes China to Agree on Imbalance Yardsticks
Group of 20 finance chiefs overcame Chinese opposition to start crafting an early warning system to detect when economic fault lines are opening that may imperil global growth.
Bernanke Reiterates Criticism of China Policy to Keep Yuan From Gaining
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke reiterated his criticism of China’s limits on the yuan, saying countries with large trade surpluses should let their currencies appreciate to aid the global economy.
Home Sales Probably Fell, Durables Rose: U.S. Economy Preview
Home sales probably fell in January, while orders for long-lasting goods climbed, a reminder that housing lags behind manufacturing as the U.S. recovery strengthens, economists said before reports this week.
Oi Plans to Slash Debt Doubted by Bondholders: Brazil Credit
Tele Norte Leste Participacoes SA, the holding company that controls Brazil’s largest fixed-line telephone service provider and the most-indebted telecommunications operator in Latin America, says it will cut obligations relative to earnings by 50 percent this year. Bondholders aren’t convinced.
