Trader and consultant Cynthia Case relies on a set of technical indicators, which it has developed for its own trading signals. Case accept decisions solely on these technical indicators and totally relies on the basic analysis. It was first introduced to trading in August 1983 when the management of Standard Oil of California – the company where she worked at the time, transferred it to the trading department under the training program management personnel. With a specialty chemical engineer, Case has brought new perspectives in the practice of trading. “In 1983 there were two things that are important and interesting in the oil trade, – says Case. – Appeared in 1983 a contract for crude oil, and the personal computer has finally worked his way into business. I persuaded them to put the computer in the room, where trading was conducted. For the trader the early 80’s I was very knowledgeable in the computer on, because I had a technical education. ”
One of the first lessons that are learned Case for trading, was that “you must be a loner, if you’re going to become a good trader. Impossible to listen to what everyone thinks. I think it is necessary to stay focused, sleep well, stay calm, and then everything will fall into place. Can not always be concerned. Although Case finds himself in now exclusively a technical trader, according to her, “I can not begin to technical trading until 1985. Technical trading is much more complicated than it may seem a superficial examination.
“It requires a great deal of work and does not mean that reading a book in two days, John Murphy, could go up for auction”, – said Case, referring to the book by John J. Murphy (John J. Murphy) «Technical analysis of futures markets, which is often called “the bible for technical traders.”
Over time, Casey started to develop its technical indicators, which it now offers its customers. It currently trades for themselves, but also acts as a consultant for about thirty corporate clients. “I – the usual techniques in the sense that the use patterns, pulses and trend. But, unlike the empirical observations, my indicators use statistics. Two of the statistical tools developed by Case, known as PeakOscilltor, light pulses, which can be used cross-comparison of markets, and the Dev-Stop, technology installation stops, depending on the volatility. In April, May and June issue of Futures Magazine, she published a series of three articles, where her technical indicators are described in more detail.
Speaking about vremennh framework, Casey said that there is an intraday trading, but its average trade lasts from three to ten days. “My trading methods are based on an exit strategy rather than the entry point, – says Case. – I quickly take off my profit. I have a lot more successful deals, but they yield less. I partially take off gain on the danger signals, such as the reverse pattern (reversal patterns) and differences impulse (momentum) ».
Case currently allows only for predictions of the energy market, but points out that its technical indicators work in all markets. In his personal trading, she prefers to “deal with the physical rather than financial futures, since the latter is too dependent on the arbitrary and political factors.
As the Board beginning futures traders, she said: “The only way to learn trading – a deal with them.” Case advises potential traders “often ask themselves the question – why? If you only want to earn lots of money, then you will not see success.
Case Concerning the individual trader said: “I would not advise anyone to start trading without the 50 thousand dollars, which is not a pity to discard, as well as pending in reserve money, which would have sufficed for two years of life. Make sure that the money is not a problem for you. If you can not, having worked for two years, did not earn a penny, then trading – not for you. Youth, I would advise to start work at any broker or trading house. I personally believe that here the chances of success will be higher. ”
In conclusion, Casey said: “The three most important things are: firstly, not all the time to listen to others’ advice, and secondly, there is no simple way. Holy Grail here. Strenuous work and perseverance – that from which we obtain a good trader. And, finally, the third: it must give pleasure.
Class indicators Cynthia Case
Indicators Cynthia Case – fairly common class of indicators. However, in Russia for some reason, few traders are aware of these indicators and use all their capabilities in their work. Indicators Cynthia Case automatically account for changes in trading activity associated with the times, trends and cycles of different lengths, and also, very importantly, the volatility of the market. In essence, they reflect the experience of Cynthia Case as an institutional trader of energy futures. Such traders do not have the opportunity to diversify their trading activity a large number of trading instruments and are forced to resort to temporary diversify their risks.
At the early diagnosis
Class indicators Cynthia Case’s particularly useful for the group of traders who engage in bidding on one certain assets in the chosen market segment. That is exactly how the majority of Russian traders in the spot market, FOREX. Opens a position for optimal (in the eyes of the trader) the currency, a position usually does not hedge any futures or options contracts, not to mention diversification by moving into other segments of the market (stocks, bonds, etc.).
Adhering to the positions of fractal geometry and chaos theory, Cynthia Case, in his book [1] proposes to use these indicators only fractal symmetric markets. These Case, primarily relates to the commodity markets deep investment horizons, as well as the stock market and the FOREX market on short intraday time intervals. It comes from the fact that teak price movement is random and unpredictable. Therefore, the emphasis in his analysis of the market Case raises not so much on forecasting the development of the market as at the earliest possible diagnosis of randomly emerging trend and its implication in line with the principle of «trend is friend».
His indicators of the nonlinear nature of the market, Case successfully complement to the widely known “classic” Technical indicators [2]. Fractal balanced market described by the theory of deterministic chaos. In this case, our ability to anticipate events in the market are severely limited. Despite the randomness of price fluctuations in the market there are repeated combinations, proportions and combinations, which makes possible their use in trading. To identify the trend Cynthia traditionally uses three beam Elder, with its main operating range – day. Market Analysis Case begins with a week, the main conclusions made in daylight, and the moments of entering the market is looking at intraday sweeps (typically 60 minutes or less).
Market Research Case carries through an integrated analysis is basically based on the Elliott Wave Principle and the ratios of Fibonacci numbers. The complex also includes: two specially constructed oscillator, a combined indicator, the most reliable, according to Case, candle combination, as well as an indicator which automatically indicates the level of setting stop-loss orders. In addition, it uses the symbols on the charts, which help to understand the driving forces and motivations of the market. Since the movement of prices in the market, according to Case, due to the Gaussian random walk, in its work, it pays great attention to the analysis of graphs. Analysis is performed in two ways.
The first is the use of traditional Bar Charts. An example is the screen with three scales charts – Daily Charts, Monitor Charts (built at a cost of 5.8 bars / day) and Timing Charts (containing 15-24 bar / day). For example, crude oil futures, NYMEX, traded 325 minutes / day – respectively, Monitor Charts will be built in the form of 41-65-minute bars.
The second option charting (on the recommendation of Case) uses ConstantVolumeBars – graphics, which are indicated by bars, built not on the basis of time as traditional BarCharts, but on the basis of TickVolume. For example, ConstantVolumeBars, containing 55 ticks, created out of bars, each of which contains 55 fluctuations. The basis for the use of precisely such schedules Case considers the relationship between TickVolume and Volatility / Risk, which in this type of scheduling more pronounced.
Cynthia Case reduces the basis of its market forecasting to the following:
1. Upon receiving the signal in the direction of the current trend it is perceived as a signal for the possibility of entering the market in the direction of the trend. The first signal against the trend is ignored. If the signal is against the trend is confirmed by a second, it is perceived and bargains (with the possible entrance into the market against the trend).
2. The basis of the analysis is the Elliott Wave Analysis. Note, however, that strict rules of interpretation of these signals do not exist.
3. Current Elliott analysis can not be supported by the passage of events. Be prepared to revise its strategy if the market situation changed radically.
4. Do not rely on someone else’s opinion and projections. Do not read any basic research, not watching the news related to your market traded. Strive to maximize the objectivity of his opinions, which can only give pricing information.
5. Do your market analysis, when it is closed.
Fibonacci Analysis
Case uses traditional Fibonacci Retracements & Extensions, complementing their own rules. All the scenarios of price movement, according to Case, may be summarized in three rules:
• Shorter Than Rule. If the wave 1 and 3 have approximately the same scale, then for the purpose of counting the 5-th wave ratio of 0.618 is used to wave 3.
• Equal to Rule. If wave 3 is clearly superior to the length of wave 1, wave 5 is rarely a little – it usually turns out to be equivalent to the wave 3.
• Longer Than Rule. If wave 3 is greater than wave 1 and does not contain CandleSticks Reversals (see above), the purpose of wave 5 is calculated based on the ratio of 1.618 to wave 1.
Fibonacci Retrasements Case used without any significant additions and changes. The only comment made on the wave 2, which often has a greater depth (up to 0.75 from wave 1).
We should not forget that the operating time Case is best used as a tool for long-term trend-following, rather than short-term trade timer.
