13 charts about the ruble, yuan and Hong Kong dollar

13 charts about the ruble, yuan and Hong Kong dollar

Hong Kong dollarHKDRUB7.84 RKbuy

YuanCNYRUB8.94 RKBuyService in partnership with Tinkoff Investments. Quotes are updated every 15 minutes

HK$ and CNY volatility is relatively low

With 1983 года гонконгский доллар привязан к американскому и торгуется в узком диапазоне 7,75—7,85 HK$ за один USD. Over the year, the Hong Kong dollar can rise or fall to the US by only a percentage.

А юань в 2005 году отвязали от американской валюты, and the USD-CNY pair is in a wider range. Year-on-year, the yuan may rise or fall against the dollar by about 10%. It's not that much, if you remember, what roller coasters are in the Russian ruble.

HK$ and CNY are more expensive on the Moscow Exchange, than in Forex

Previously, prices on the Russian and international markets were almost the same. At the Moscow Exchange, they asked for the same amount of rubles for currency, how much and on Forex. Но весной 2022 over the years, prices have diverged significantly..

В марте гонконгский доллар на Мосбирже стоил на 120% more expensive, than in Forex. Probably, the reason is high demand and low liquidity. In July, the trading volume of this currency grew, and the overpayment decreased to 0-10%.

For the yuan, the March inefficiency was less - about 20%. And in July, the overpayment against Forex decreased to 0-6%. Seems, that it's not so much, but at the beginning of the year the prices were the same.

Trading volumes of HK$ and CNY on the Moscow Exchange increased

Demand for yuan and Hong Kong dollar increased due to Western sanctions, therefore, the volume of trading in these currencies on the Moscow Exchange also increased.

С начала года месячный объем торгов гонконгским долларом увеличился в 166 once, with 29 million to 4,8 billion rubles. And the volume of trading in the yuan grew in 33 Times, with 27 to 886 billion rubles.

While both Asian currencies are still heavily underperformed by the US dollar. В июле им наторговали на более чем 2 trillion rubles.

HK$ и CNY вернулись на уровень 2017 of the year

Now the ruble is trading against the USD, HK$ and CNY at the level of five years ago. All because of the strengthening in recent months. For example, from the beginning 2022 года гонконгский и американский доллары упали к рублю на 16—19%. The yuan sank more over the same period - by 23%.

Worst month for ruble

A little about currency horror stories. Many are sure, that August is the worst month for the ruble. Maybe, из-за дефолта 1998 of the year. Then, for six months, the US dollar strengthened in 4 Times, with 6 to 24 rubles.

По данным с 2004 of the year, in August, the dollar usually rises against the ruble by 2,1%. It's bad, but not the worst. Almost the same dollar rises in January, July and November. And the best month for the ruble is April. Here the dollar loses about 2%.

History shows, that the ruble does not have any unambiguously worst month. Periodic crises look much more dangerous, during which the ruble falls by tens of percent. And they can happen in any month..

Resume

There is no magic pill in the currency market right now.. That is, there is no one tool, which would protect against all risks.

The American dollar used to be a magic pill for Russians. This is logical: the US has a strong economy, and inflation is usually low. Dollars helped to calmly survive crises and crazy ruble jumps.

But in 2022 году ситуация изменилась. Now regulators - Western or local - can restrict dollar trading, and then the money hangs. Поэтому Банк России и брокеры рекомендуют экзотические валюты.

Yuan and Hong Kong dollar look relatively good. For example, they are not that volatile, like Russian ruble. The problem is different: China and Hong Kong are developing regions.

Political and economic risks are higher here, than in developed countries. Usually, in times of crisis, investors shift to US dollars., therefore, the currencies of developing countries can devalue.

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