STEEL

Events / news that I missed, and which seemed interesting

***Possible merger of Uralkali and Silvinit. Say, such a monster will become number 2 after Potash himself. And if the latter is still bought, then honorary # 1 himself.

***It hardly matters to Argentina how high international wheat prices go in the wake of Russia’s export ban: its producers are unlikely to be able to cash in. (FT) Все как всегда. Not known, which drives up food prices more in short periods, short-term supply shocks, speculators or officials. (Argentine exports)

***Mining executives and analysts estimate that iron ore prices for the fourth quarter will drop by 10-15% and coking coal prices by 5-10%, pushing down steel prices or widening steelmakers’ profit margins. (отсюда)

****Argentina’s central bank on Thursday relaxed key monetary targets after overshooting annual goals for growth in monetary aggregates, heralding a stance that favours stoking growth over reining in inflation. Nothing special yet, но интересно.. (отсюда)

***Lies, damned lies, and equity mutual fund statistics. About the erroneous statement, that stock markets are rapidly losing their retail participants.

***Dynamics of mortgage lending in European countries. (отсюда)

*** McDonald's issues yuan-denominated bonds …. (отсюда)

*** 65% Americans consider, that we have a double dip". согласен, now everyone is contrarian, but as O'Neal recently pointed out correctly (if I'm not mistaken, it seems he) about the euro, this is somehow too much..

*** CME mistakenly places test orders for trading. The name speaks for itself))

Lakshmi Mittal’s gloom

Still, it will be hard to dodge altogether the effects of China’s capacity adjustments and the ongoing weakness of developed markets. Investors, once inured to chief executive Lakshmi Mittal’s irrepressible bullishness, should not take his gloom lightly. (Lex)

а зря)

LME Shows Off Activity In Steel Derivatives

The LME said trading in steel contracts hit 57,606 lots between January and June, up 385 per cent from the same period in 2009.

Steel trading volumes started to pick up in March after running flat for almost two years and since then they have settled an all-time high every month. Volumes are, nonetheless, well below other metals contracts. Tin, the smallest market at the LME, traded about 760,000 lots in the first half of the year and the largest contracts, copper and aluminium, traded 14.7m and 22.5m lots respectively.

The LME, the world’s largest base metals derivatives market, said total trading volumes for all metals in the first half of the year hit an all time high of 59.3m lots, up 7.5 per cent from the same period of 2009. Lead, nickel and copper made the biggest year on year increases. Aluminium posted a small drop.

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In Shanghai, By the way, quite interesting market.

Iron ore pricing war

Toy from FT (the picture painted by me is clickable).

on this screen price indices: синим – ŽR, красным – steel.
and) only I saw a nice guy there?)
b) sometimes it seems, that the optimism for the second half of the year is rather related to the idea of, that steel prices will go up again (well it is more like Yes, underneath this all there is a continuation of active recovery, etc., but (again sometimes) it seems that the thought does not reach this part of the logic). 

UBS on the steel market

nothing specific. they say prices will probably go down further, and from a typically weak summer, something more negative can turn out. but it's not that bad, но риски есть. meanwhile a couple of buy recommendations, for example, МТ, Posco and Baostil.

а вот это – capacity utilization around the world.

but this is in Russia, Ukraine. UBS says, that in Russia everything is a little better due to the domestic market and a slightly different structure of contracts. maybe that's why the opinions of Russian and Ukrainian analysts differ somewhat?)

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