This month turned out to be very fruitful for spammers. For 24 of the day spammers managed to write more 10 000 SPAM Comments. Fortunately 99% of them do not pass. Unfortunately, because of this, comments have ceased to be displayed temporarily., but tomorrow I will restore. The blog has also been hacked., I don't know where the vulnerability is, we will dig. This is the second time it has been hacked., worse when it was 2 weeks of DDoS attacks. And you have a lot of spammers writing ???
Today `` market participants expected a sharp acceleration in the growth of producer prices in the United States ''. waited, how to say so, softer.. All in all, last time, such a mistake was in full swing 2008 of the year. Speech, certainly, about the baseline, i.e. minus energy and s / x. Not great all somehow. All kinds of industrial production, it is predictable. And here is Empire State.. There, too, the prices did not go well, by the way..
I, certainly, glad to, what is happening in the markets, but it's time to pause. And, at all, can't help but shake off the thought, that somehow everything is too simple. well, yes, and too, quickly.
Inflationary expectations.
read, that someone from the NBU boasted about `` taking inflationary expectations under control '', which was the reason for the slowdown in inflation in Ukraine in the last of the reporting months.
shocked. Inflationary expectations? In Ukraine? Taken under control? How? With using what? Where? It's all about what? It's a fantasy.
Emotions.
One side , the other side, sad, at least .
Recently, ready to become the head of the Fed, there are so many, which is simply based on the primitive contrarian view, you do not need to look at the basics of economic theory with apolitical eyes, to understand the current problems of monetary policy. And then, just like the famous hero 'take and share" some.
in the last month, seems, that the investment world is going crazy, напрочь. like in the first half 2008 of the year. it's about sentiment. markets behave quite sanely.
let's remember the liquidity programs two years ago. public perception: this is hyperinflation, they print money! OK, sorted out. …hmm, and… …e…. about! And they (reserves) everybody is going to gush now! hyperinflation, hyperinflation!!!!
naive monetarism, it's still that.
By the way, when the wolf comes, it will not come from the monetary side, but with the most ordinary, with the most common cyclical.
Budget expenditures. In Bloomberg, in some places very interesting `` economic daily '', no matter how you pay for it. Not that, to something important, but useful interesting things often come across. Here, Really, I didn't get it, why subtract FFR, but the general idea is already clear.
Consequences of QE. As opposed to 'the markets are driven by the printing press', was so bulish on the American macro, that I almost did not believe in a return to slightly above trend growth. We urgently need to go see Rosenberg, to restore peace of mind.
Ukrrynok. Excuse me, for a vulgar phrase, but he really is meaningless and merciless. Especially the second. Can I have a little banter? From what was noticed the other day.
SMASH. Some guys woke up a couple of days ago, but there was a meeting 25 yet. Certainly, don't warn me I would oversleep the event itself, but the market is still, least 2 day gave the opportunity to painlessly enter / exit. Although, in general,, not my job, to deal with some sector.
“Let's consider ukravtoprom by EV / Capacity and compare with the Chinese”. Jetty, underestimated. You need to continue or everything immediately becomes clear? By the way, taking into account the plans for the introduction of new capacities, you can change all kinds of EV / Capacity in EM to increase the Capacity itself. Type, they are underestimated in EM, because, what's there capacity expansion. If the latter were not there, then EV / Capacity would not be 6, and, say 8. Well, and then in the same style.
And just a little bit more angry. Hmm, and where is the UX Index on 1000 points? Not, i don't mind, to draw conclusions looking at the graph. God be with them with astrocycles, eliots and other grails. Everyone has their own cockroaches (for example, I quite seriously believe in patterns, at that, that they can exist, exactly can, but do not exist). And actually, my summer look was like this: macro everything will be fine, technique – everything is just disgusting. Stop, where does it have to do with “UB index on 1000 points”? The fact, that the representatives of this movement seem to sincerely believed in doubledeep. But they had a lot of buy recommendations. All in all, skis, certainly, as always, nothing to do with it.
unexpectedly it turned out, what “ouch, but the volume of QE may not be as large as we all want”. about, God, the market falls for 1% on fears of low QE volume… all in all, or is it not a surprise for the market. or the market blindly believes in 2 trillion. you decide.
look at the price components of all kinds of PMI and smile. it's one thing when the breakdown grows and new issues of tips with negative profitability come out. another thing, when prices equalize in reality. then we look at the operational indicators and see how the slowdown took care of. the fed did his job, Fed can rest. joke. the economy was not planning to go into double dip by now, which I didn’t do. indignant summer alarms, au-u…
look at the Chicago PMI and keep in mind that, that he has more than 90% correlation with subsequent ISM (so they say). ouch, was the market pledged to restore growth?. I'm not talking about crazy guys who sold sipi at 1k and bought off at 1.2k. here they are 3/4 rally. they have always been there. not growth – this is QE fallback. and QE – this is your insurance in case, if the macro doesn't line up. (will align, ie. will begin to level out. so more precisely).
and about the sad. judging by the components of US GDP, probability of quarterly <0 in one of the next two quarters remains. no need to dramatize like Rosenberg, but there are chances. I think, which is more likely in the first quarter, than in the fourth, although this is not typical. commercials with a probability of 25% (Sort of, if you guessed right – then “I told you”, if not, then “I didn't insist”).
so not that, what a question, not that, so that they are concerned about the answer (boringly state) the nation-famous woodcutters of truth with a word on stone, in view of the worthiness of this occupation, товарищчи. сори, кто понял, тот понял, who is not, вот и замечательно.
from my side, I decided to look for the truth in numbers. for example, how many onaliteks we have? since you need to compare with something, you can compare the number of analysts with the capitalization of the index.
let's take the USA. capitalization S&P 500 approximately 11500 billion. $. in the segment & quot; securities, commodity contracts, investments" busy 796 000 human.
let's take Ukraine. capitalization of the UX Index is approximately 10,6 billion. $. how much should be employed in Ukrainian securities, commodity contracts, investments"? right: (10,6 billion * 796 thousand) / 11500 billion = 727 human. the truth is not by orders of magnitude different?)
but if you take in % from population, then in the USA this % commercials in 160 times more (0.2564% against 0.0016%). this effect is obtained from, what is our capitalization to GDP (and if you also take freefloat) you know where and how.
Yes, these are all just numbers and they don't say anything. problem, if she certainly is, lies in the psychological plane. In general, everything is somehow strange here. those who do something meaningful rarely feel it. and vice versa. well, we will have more Gini coefficient, than all sorts of official estimates.
the truth is there is almost a flip side of the coin. вот знаете вы, that the consensus is wrong about something. usually you have the opportunity to make money on it. but not in Ukraine. Here's how to use the underestimation of the Ukrainian sipiye? but no way. that's how we live.
with 2007 on 2009 so many interesting and unprecedented things happened, that the choice of the storyline is perplexing. and how many more interesting characters and events. OK, Geithner is not colorful, but Ben and Hank.. and Madoff, and take off to the top of all sorts of peters shift? I'm not talking about the market battles themselves.
this is all to that, what of such a grandiose historical material, it turned out to be a completely ordinary story. without scope. such a film can be shot every 10 years without problems of connection with the historical context. but we still had not the most ordinary years. and there is.
if the first film conveyed the mood and atmosphere (well, or created an image of this atmosphere), then the second part, HM.. the atmosphere of startups is better conveyed))