Silver

Take-profit or not Take-profit — that is the question!

Everyone already knows about the Silver bubble. The whole question, when it will burst, today or it will come to 100, maybe more. Here, for example, I have Silver open 3 positions on three trend-following systems. None of them have take profit, that is, the accumulated profit is always given before the position is closed by the stop. If I knew, that the summit is coming soon, it would be possible to simply fix the profit — even if it grows more dollars by 5-10, anyway, the stop will close lower than if you fix right now. Can, certainly, just stick strictly to the system and not jerk — where will it close, there it will close. But still, the case is unusual — has grown very much and may collapse even faster and you will have to give too much of the accumulated profit.
Everything is clear about System # 1 — there are rather dense feet — losses will be small. But according to System No. 2 it looks like this:

WLD6 has a useful utility called Position Life Time" — the percentage scale reflects all positions in the system for 25 years:

Today's position is indicated by a blue line, which is already more 50%. It is seen, that in the history of this system there was already a trade in which the top reached 50%, and then I gave it 25% accumulated profit. Therefore, it may be time to take profit today or tomorrow.?

According to system no. 3, which is more than twice as long as the second system, the situation is:

Here, at all, if Silver goes down like a stone, then more than half of the accumulated profit will be given. But, On the other hand, if it goes up for a long time to 100, just adjusting from time to time, then you can go very far and the feet will pull themselves up by themselves at least to 80. :)

A & quot; life time" positions on this system looks like this:

Today's position is indicated by a blue line, which came up to 40%.. It can be seen that there were two trades in the history of the system., when profits increased to 60 And 70%, but then gave profit to 40%. So that, in theory, you can close manually if the profit grows to 60%.

Here's a dilemma. You can do nothing, let the systems decide, but I remember how very successfully I recently closed at the very top on Khlopok in a similar situation. But you can’t always be lucky, and this time you can go cheap and miss the bubble of the century., if he's still on 100-200% will develop, but you won't be able to re-enter :)

This is not a question or a demand for advice.. These are just my thoughts on this matter, expressed in doubt :)

Silver Weekly

 Historically, inflation-adjusted may not be a bubble. but according to technical criteria, not only a bubble, but also a BUBBLE.
Everything bursts sooner or later, who finds the right timing can make a fortune. Anticipating keeping the LONG position off the bottom is not an easy task since the ceiling is not visible, but when the ceiling is defined, then the gender is clearly visible.


Fate of Silver Futures.

All in all, I realized what was in store for silver as a tool for speculation in the form of a futures. Hope, everyone remembers the old historical high for this instrument in 1980 year — $48.00 — formed by the machinations of the Hunt brothers. So here, no matter what, we have to get to this point, overcome it and then with a clear conscience return to a fair price, Order 10 Dollars, and even lower:

So that, we invite everyone to take part in this infinitely insane rally. The potential is still huge. Risk too :)

Yes, and further, they, who bought at the top in 1980 year, will be able to close at breakeven (zero). In connection with these sales, a strong resistance to further upward movement is formed. — a trend reversal will occur :)

Silver!

I recently wrote that the most volatile futures in the last month — Coffee. But today I realized that I missed the Silver futures — it is almost one and a half times more volatile in monetary terms than Coffee. Today they, along with Palladium, are favorites in my portfolio.. And cotton has already begun to be limited even when it grows by 2,8%. A few days ago, remember, on 3,7-4% stopped trading.

It's just that I used to trade mini silver YI, and now switched to a full SI contract.

Silver.

Interesting, there are still people who want to shorten it?
Although the current levels look very attractive, yes and point, the upper boundary of the ascending channel hints. Growth, the truth is already on a parabola, and can endure even higher.

Certainly, the theme of shorts can be moved to the section soon “humor”. А что изменилось, by and large, с августа, or yeast? Well do you remember these predictions. S&P500 per 1300, потом по 950, euro to par with the dollar, remember?… Etc. In my opinion, сделана ставка на то, to drive the market up and down. Pulling out an idea, inflate, выпускают. Now I sit at the computer a lot, therefore, there is a strong information attack, presing such “Buy, Buy”… It was the same in the spring. In August, when I was resting, and hardly tracked the markets, bought quietly from certain levels, and was right in the end, sold before, and did everything right too. But now, to my mind, just hysteria, it is understandable, взбодрились, who bought at the MICEX 1500 and S&P 1200, sit out the loss so much, it is possible to get under way :)

Scammers from NYSELIFFE.

Here are the bastards, not the first time such machinations. У одного меня только около 4000 taken away from under your nose in an instant, and such 300 contracts passed this minute — so someone put more than half a million dollars in his pocket. Moreover, within one minute. If it was someone outside, then the exchange, probably would have canceled such bullshit. And if not canceled, it means that they themselves turned this fraud. Someone else wants to leave the DC — sit and rejoice in greenhouse conditions — on the stock exchange you will be stripped in a second. Pancake, and then the tests do not converge with real — there she is, one of the reasons, there have already been several such cases.

By the way, on Nymex there is no such hairpin for silver at all, which once again proves a sign of fraud.

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And here I got the answer:

All trades in the Dec 2010 YI futures stand from today’s open. The exchange reviewed the transactions when they occurred and determined that none of them would be busted. Official low for the time was 20.07.
Please manage any resulting market risk as is most appropriate for the account.

That is, nothing is canceled. Someone made themselves $600 000 in about one minute. And someone, for example some day trader, if you stocked up in full with supposedly control of risks, guaranteed to reset the account. And everything is alright, everything according to the rules of the exchange….

Pancake — write control your risks — how can they control them if they can file it at any price and they will not get anything for it :(

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