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Pole GoldPLZL12 158,00 BuyService in partnership with Tinkoff Investments. Quotes are updated every 15 minutes
"Pole" (MCX, LSE: PLZL) — the largest in Russia and one of the largest gold producers in the world. Continue reading “Новости «Полюса»: что изменилось у золотодобытчика”
RUSALRUAL66.75 RBuyService in partnership with Tinkoff Investments. Continue reading “Следим за компанией «Русал»”
Branch: chemical industry
Sector: materials
Ticker: PHOR
Country: Philippines 🇷🇺
Buy Phosagro shares at Tinkoff Investments
Phosagro (MCX: PHOR) — Russian fertilizer producer. The company tops the list of leaders in terms of production of phosphate-based fertilizers in Europe. The product line includes 50 fertilizer grades, которые реализуются в 100 странах по всему миру для сельскохозяйственной отрасли. The company's shares are traded on the Moscow Exchange under the ticker symbol PHOR.
10 Martha 2022 года на пост генерального директора «Фосагро» назначили Михаила Рыбникова, who served as Deputy General Manager. Before him, the company was headed by Andrey Guriev, which was included in the EU sanctions list 9 March and left the leadership position. Besides, Guriev and members of his family resigned from the board of directors of PhosAgro, to get the company out of sanctions.
Prior to that, members of the Guriev family not only held senior positions and were members of the board of directors., but also owned the largest stake in the company - directly and through the Cypriot companies Chlodwig Enterprises AG and Adorabella AG.
Shares of Chlodwig Enterprises AG and Adorabella AG transferred to trusts due to EU sanctions, whose economic beneficiaries are Andrey Guryev, his wife and daughter. PhosAgro website says, that they are entitled to receive only economic benefits from the activities, but not to control the actions of the company.
Vladimir Litvinenko, rector of St. Petersburg Mining University, owns the second largest stake in Phosagro after the Guriev family..
| Adorabella AG | 23,35% |
| Chlodwig Enterprises AG | 20,31% |
| Vladimir Litvinenko | 20,98% |
| Evgeniya Guryeva | 4,82% |
| Other shareholders | 30,54% |
23,35%
Phosagro operates in four main areas: production and sale of nitrogen, phosphorus-containing double and triple fertilizers, feed phosphates, as well as chemical raw materials. Среднесписочная численность сотрудников составляет около 18 thousands of people, а общие производственные мощности превышают 10 млн тонн удобрений в год. Балансовая стоимость активов достигает 400 billion rubles.
The company controls the entire production chain, from ore mining and processing to the production of fertilizers of various grades for subsequent sale in Russia and abroad.
The main production facilities are located in Russia. Mining and processing enterprises are located in the Murmansk (Kirov branch of JSC "Apatit"), Vologda (JSC "Apatit"), Saratov (Balakovo branch of Apatit JSC) and Leningrad (Volkhov branch of Apatit JSC) areas.
Extraction and processing. The company provides itself with a resource base for the production of phosphate raw materials thanks to its own deposits of nepheline ore of igneous origin. The world's largest mining and processing complex is located in the Murmansk region, where high-grade phosphate raw materials and nepheline concentrate are produced.
Production. Recycled raw materials are used in the production of fertilizers and feed additives at three production sites:
Logistics. PhosAgro controls its own logistics infrastructure, which includes two port terminals, as well as the country's largest distribution network of mineral fertilizers and feed phosphates. География продаж компании насчитывает около 100 стран по всему миру, and key sales markets, except Russia and CIS countries, countries of Europe, Asia, Africa, North and South America.
| Europe | 37,7% |
| South America | 33,5% |
| North America | 10,2% |
| India | 6,4% |
| Africa | 5,8% |
| CIS | 3,9% |
| Asia | 2,5% |
37,7%
PhosAgro's financial statements include two major operating segments, or, what the company calls them, two strategic business units.
Phosphorus-containing products. Проектная мощность предприятий компании позволяет выпускать около 8 млн тонн продукции в год, including the release of ammophos, diammonium phosphate, sodium tripolyphosphate and other phosphate and complex fertilizers, which are used in agriculture to increase productivity.
Nitrogen-containing products. Производственная мощность сегмента составляет около 2,5 млн тонн продукции в год и в основном включает выпуск аммиака, ammonium nitrate and urea at the plant in Cherepovets. All products of the segment are used in agriculture.
Besides, There are several types of revenue and expense items., that do not belong to any particular segment and are reported as "Other activities". The company does not disclose details regarding, what belongs to this category.
| Phosphorus-containing products | 79,2% |
| Nitrogen-containing products | 17,1% |
| Other revenue | 3,7% |
79,20%
Sales revenue. The company's revenues consist of two components: phosphorus sales volume- and nitrogen-containing products, as well as average selling prices.
The difference between sales revenue and cost of sales is called gross profit.. In order to calculate the net profit, from the gross subtract net operating and financial expenses, including tax payments and one-time items from non-cash revaluation of exchange rate differences and asset values.
Net profit. Allows you to evaluate the final results of activities in monetary terms. Dividends are paid from net profit and investment projects are financed without increasing the debt burden. Besides, the net profit indicator is used in the calculation of popular multipliers to assess the investment attractiveness of the business.
Coefficient P / E – the ratio of market capitalization to net profit. Determines, for how long can the company theoretically "recoup" the investor's investments in the issuer's securities.
Коэффициент ROE – the ratio of the company's net profit to its capital. Says that, how efficiently the company uses its capital compared to competitors.
free cash flow - sum, that the company generates from operating activities, net of investment costs and adjusted for interest received and paid. This indicator indicates that, how much the company can allocate for dividends without harming the business.
| Revenue ↑ +66% | Natural gas is used in the production of fertilizers. Rising gas prices in the European market during 2 Half 2021 года привел к росту себестоимости производства минеральных удобрений, the closure of a number of enterprises and a sharp increase in prices for fertilizers around the world. PhosAgro controls costs thanks to high vertical integration and access to cheap Russian gas |
| Cost of sales ↑ +31% | |
| Gross profit ↑ +131% | |
| Free cash flow ↑ +83% | Thanks to the wide geography of sales, management optimized sales there, where demand and prices for products increased. The business generated record free cash flow and net income by increasing sales volumes and average selling prices |
| Adjusted net income ↑ +200% | |
| Net debt ↓ −2% | The company increased the amount of loans and borrowings, but compensated for this by increasing the amount of money and their equivalents in the accounts |
| Fertilizer production ↑ +3% | The company spent almost 50 billion rubles for capital investments and launched a new plant in the Leningrad region |
| Equity ↑ +53% | The company made more money, than paid dividends to shareholders |
| Retained earnings ↑ +63% |
Natural gas is used in the production of fertilizers. Rising gas prices in the European market during 2 Half 2021 года привел к росту себестоимости производства минеральных удобрений, the closure of a number of enterprises and a sharp increase in prices for fertilizers around the world. PhosAgro controls costs thanks to high vertical integration and access to cheap Russian gas
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Production of apatite and nepheline concentrates | 10,54 | 11,05 | 11,69 | 11,7 | 11,8 |
| Production of phosphate fertilizers | 6,61 | 6,85 | 7,26 | 7,58 | 7,89 |
| Production of nitrogen fertilizers | 1,73 | 2,12 | 2,25 | 2,4 | 2,41 |
| Sales of phosphate fertilizers | 6,49 | 6,63 | 7,26 | 7,67 | 7,76 |
| Sales of nitrogen fertilizers | 1,62 | 2,2 | 2,2 | 2,29 | 2,49 |
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 181,4 | 233,3 | 248,1 | 253,9 | 420,5 |
| Operating profit | 36 | 54 | 51,7 | 59 | 164,1 |
| Net income before adjustments | 25,3 | 22,1 | 49,4 | 16,9 | 129,7 |
| Net income after adjustments | 21,2 | 41,7 | 37,1 | 43,4 | 130,2 |
| free cash flow | −5,9 | 20,5 | 28,3 | 42,5 | 77,9 |
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capital expenditure | 35,9 | 38,4 | 42,7 | 40,9 | 48 |
| net debt | 120,0 | 135,3 | 131,6 | 156,9 | 153,7 |
| EBITDA | 50,8 | 74,9 | 75,6 | 85,7 | 191,8 |
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P / E | 15,3 | 7,9 | 8,4 | 9,4 | 5,8 |
| ROE | 21,6% | 38,1% | 29,5% | 40,3% | 79,1% |
| net debt / 12mEBITDA | 2,4× | 1,8× | 1,7× | 1,9× | 0,8× |
Good prices in the fertilizer market. IN 2021 году выросли цены на минеральные удобрения из-за роста инфляции, violations of logistics supply chains and rise in the cost of raw materials. Rising prices for fertilizers in the future against the backdrop of the food crisis may lead to a further increase in prices for phosphorus and nitrogen fertilizers.
Flexible sales policy. Phosagro supplies products to more than a hundred countries. Thanks to its wide diversification, the company is able to maintain a flexible sales policy and redirect product volumes to markets with the highest profitability., maintaining high profitability of sales.
Cheap raw materials and complete self-sufficiency. The company controls the entire production chain and largely provides its own production with raw materials. This allows you to work smartly with costs and creates a competitive advantage..
Large-scale modernization. In recent years, the company has been investing significant amounts in the modernization of old and construction of new facilities.. This allows the business to expand the product line and annually update the historical maximum in terms of the volume of fertilizers produced..
price dependence. Business is highly dependent on price dynamics in the global fertilizer market. Deteriorating market conditions and falling prices for phosphate and nitrogen fertilizers may lead to a drop in key financial indicators.
Sanctions and export restrictions. Huge volumes of the company's exports fall on "unfriendly" countries. Restrictions on the supply of Phosagro products to these countries will lead to a drop in sales and reduce revenue and profit.
Internal restrictions. Rising prices on world fertilizer markets to historical highs will lead to strict control over export volumes and prices on the domestic market by the Russian authorities. This will lead to a decrease in the profitability of sales..
The government has already introduced a number of restrictions on the industry, которые заставляют производителей «замораживать» цены на уровне средних значений мая — июля 2021 of the year.
Reducing dividend payments. In recent years, Phosagro has been among the market leaders in terms of dividend yield of securities. Furthermore, the company paid dividends 4 times a year at the end of each reporting quarter. Reducing payments will lead to an outflow of investors and, Consequently, drop in the company's quotes.
Phosagro's dividend calculation base is free cash flow for the reporting period, calculated in accordance with IFRS consolidated financial statements.
Free cash flow share, which can be used for dividends, depends on the level of debt load, calculated by the ratio "net debt / EBITDA». At the same time, there is a condition in the policy, that dividends cannot be less 50% from adjusted net profit.
In recent years, the company has been paying dividends to shareholders 4 times a year at the end of each reporting quarter.
| net debt / EBITDA | How much will be spent on dividends |
|---|---|
| < 1 | No less 75% free cash flow |
| 1—1,5 | From 50 to 75% free cash flow |
| > 1,5 | No more 50% free cash flow |
How much will be spent on dividends
| 2016 | 165 R |
| 2017 | 81 R |
| 2018 | 192 R |
| 2019 | 192 R |
| 2020 | 297 R |
| 2021 | 885 R |
165 R
US withdraws mineral fertilizers from Russia from sanctions. The Office of Foreign Assets Control of the US Treasury has included fertilizer in the list of essential products. In fact, this means the removal of restrictions on the supply of fertilizers from Russia to the United States and allows Russian producers to, including PhosAgro, maintain its presence in the North American market. It is logical to expect similar indulgences from the US allies, including EU countries, which are major consumers of mineral fertilizers from Russia.
Control over foreign trading divisions of Phosagro passed to management. В марте компания снизила долю владения в трейдинговой компании Phosint Limite с 100 to 5%. Previously, Phosagro directly owned and operated its trading companies abroad, but under the conditions of Western sanctions, she chose to officially exit the business and transfer control to management. Thus, the company is trying to avoid restrictions from "unfriendly" countries., secure foreign counterparties and maintain uninterrupted supplies to export markets.
Phosagro postponed the annual meeting of shareholders. Meetings are usually held in the last days of May., but in 2022 году оно состоится 30 June in absentia. На собрании поднимут вопросы об утверждении дивидендных выплат и годовом отчете за 2021 year.
Andrey Guriev resigned as CEO of Phosagro after being included in the sanctions list. The company was headed by his deputy - Mikhail Rybnikov. The Guriev family transferred the stake in PhosAgro to a special trust and no longer has direct control over the company's activities.
The reverse side of the sanctions. Европа может столкнуться с дефицитом удобрений и низкой урожайностью в 2022 году на фоне высоких цен на природный газ и ограничений на поставку со стороны России.
Branch: metallurgy and mining
Sector: materials
Ticker: MAGN
Country: Philippines 🇷🇺
Buy shares of MMK in Tinkoff Investments
MMC (MCX: MAGN) — Russian manufacturer of steel products. The company provides construction steel, pipe, machine- and automotive industry. Based on the results of 2021 года в структуре выручки преобладают Россия и страны СНГ с долей в 74%, and the Middle East with share 11%. Акции ММК торгуются на Московской бирже с 2007 года под тикером MAGN.
A controlling stake in MMK belongs to Viktor Rashnikov, who has served as chairman of the board of directors for many years. More about 20% shares are in free float.
| Victor Rashnikov | 79,76% |
| Other | 20,24% |
79,76% Other 20,24%
The company's key assets are located in Magnitogorsk - Chelyabinsk region. There are also assets in the Perm Territory and the Kemerovo Region., and foreign assets include two plants in Turkey.
Based on the results of 2021 года в компании работает более 56 thousands of people, а балансовая стоимость предприятия превышает 465 billion rubles.
MMK identifies three operating business segments: Russian steel segment, Turkey and the coal mining segment.
Steel segment of Russia. The largest segment of the company, which includes multiple assets:
Steel segment of Turkey. The company has two factories in Iskenderun and Istanbul, merged into MMK Metalurji. Суммарная производственная мощность активов — 2,3 млн тонн стали и плоского проката в год. For many years, only premium products were produced here., так как электросталеплавильное производство остановили еще в 2012 году из-за высокой себестоимости. IN 2021 году производство стали возобновили.
Coal mining segment. The company mines coal at the Belon and MMK-ugol enterprises in the Kemerovo Region. Запасы оцениваются в 277 million tons. Производственные мощности по добыче — 5 million tons, по обогащению — 6 million tons. The vast majority of coal is used internally in the production of steel.
| Hot rolled steel | 46,3% |
| Galvanized steel | 19,4% |
| Long products | 7,5% |
| Pre-painted galvanized steel | 7,1% |
| Cold rolled products | 6,9% |
| Wire, slings, fasteners | 2,0% |
| Hardware products | 1,5% |
| Tinplate | 1,4% |
| steel tape | 1,2% |
| Slabs | 1,0% |
| Coke production | 1,0% |
| Curved profile | 0,7% |
| scrap metal | 0,6% |
| Pipes | 0,5% |
| Coking coal | 0,3% |
| Other | 2,6% |
46,3%
Sales revenue. The company's revenues consist of two components: sales volumes and average selling prices. In the case of steel companies, sales prices are quite volatile, because steel is a commodity. In addition, its price is significantly affected by economic cycles..
The difference between sales revenue and cost of sales is called gross profit.. In order to calculate the net profit, from the gross subtract net operating and financial expenses, including tax payments and one-time items from non-cash revaluation of exchange rate differences and asset values.
Net profit. Allows you to evaluate the final results of activities in monetary terms. The indicator is used when calculating popular multipliers to assess the investment attractiveness of a business.
free cash flow. Difference between operating income and total expenses, except for the payment of a debt. The free cash flow indicator allows you to understand, how much money is left in the company after most expenses, including capital costs. Some companies and, in particular, MMK - use it as a basis for calculating dividends.
Coefficient P / E – the ratio of market capitalization to net profit. Determines, for how long can the company theoretically "recoup" the investor's investments in the issuer's securities.
Коэффициент ROE – the ratio of the company's net profit to its capital. Says that, how efficiently the company uses its capital compared to competitors.
| Revenue ↑ +89% | Growing sales of steel products and excellent steel pricing helped outweigh rising costs |
| Cost of sales ↑ +53% | |
| Operating profit ↑ +307% | |
| Free cash flow ↑ +189% | Operating profit growth outweighed increased capital expenditures |
| Net profit ↑ +425% | Operating profit growth outpaced cost growth |
| Net debt ↓ −359% | Net debt sank even further into negative territory amid growth in cash and cash equivalents |
| Equity ↑ +38% | Retained earnings increased |
Growing sales of steel products and excellent steel pricing helped outweigh rising costs
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steel production volume | 12,9 | 12,7 | 12,5 | 11,6 | 13,3 |
| Steel sales volume | 11,6 | 11,7 | 11,3 | 10,8 | 12,5 |
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 440,1 | 511,5 | 489,2 | 463,0 | 873,2 |
| Operating profit | 85,0 | 115,0 | 82,6 | 67,9 | 276,2 |
| Net profit | 69,3 | 75,6 | 55,0 | 43,7 | 229,3 |
| free cash flow | 40,5 | 56,8 | 57,0 | 40,8 | 118,0 |
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capital expenditure | 42,1 | 53,6 | 53,9 | 50,4 | 83,1 |
| net debt | −0,8 | −14,1 | −14,6 | −6,5 | −29,9 |
| EBITDA | 118,6 | 146,2 | 116,2 | 107,5 | 315,8 |
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P / E | 6,75 | 6,36 | 8,53 | 14,3 | 3,39 |
| ROE | 21,6% | 21,8% | 16,2% | 12,9% | 49,0% |
| net debt / EBITDA | −0,01× | −0,10× | −0,13× | −0,06× | −0,09× |
Dividends. On the Russian stock market, representatives of the metallurgical industry traditionally offer excellent dividend stories. In Russia, investors are very fond of dividends, so if MMK continues to pay them steadily, then many of them will continue to buy shares of the company.
Good price environment in the world market. Великолепные финансовые результаты ММК за 2021 год во многом определялись конъюнктурой: world prices for steel products increased significantly. Inflation in the world does not subside - perhaps, market conditions will continue to help MMK.
Improvements in geopolitics and regulation. If in the field of geopolitics relief begins, this will have a positive impact on the entire market, and on MMK stock quotes. The same goes for regulatory restrictions..
Geopolitics and regulation. MMK shares may fall as with the entire market amid the introduction of new sanctions, possible future mass exit of non-residents from Russian shares, and due to internal restrictions and regulation.
Dependence on market conditions. Metallurgy is a cyclic industry, that is, depending on the economic cycle, the demand for products and prices change significantly. Following them, the financial indicators of metallurgists are changing., dividends and, Consequently, stock quotes. Besides, in the case of MMK, it is worth mentioning the incomplete vertical integration of production. So, based on the results of 2020 года компания обеспечивала себя электроэнергией на 75%, coal concentrate - 40%, and iron ore raw materials - only 17%. And since, along with steel prices in 2020-2021, raw material prices have also grown significantly, necessary for its production, MMK could not benefit to the same extent from the situation, as competitors better endowed with raw materials.
Potential Dividend Cut. If a company, due to regulatory pressure or changes in the economic situation, starts paying less dividends or adjusts its dividend policy towards less attractiveness, then many dividend investors will be disappointed and will sell MMK shares.
The company pays dividends from free cash flow depending on the debt load. If the value of the multiplier is "net debt / EBITDA" less than one, then at least 100% free cash flow. If more, then no less 50%. The company pays dividends on a quarterly basis.
| 2017 | 2,786 R |
| 2018 | 5,902 R |
| 2019 | 5,335 R |
| 2020 | 3,943 R |
| 9м2021 | 7,988 R |
2,786 R
Domestic prices for metals will be limited. This will be done as part of the proposed agreement between the Ministry of Industry and Trade and representatives of the metallurgical sector.. This may have a negative impact on MMK's financial performance due to its significant focus on the domestic market..
The EU banned the supply of Russian steel. The reason is another package of sanctions. Directly, this should not greatly affect the MMK: EU share of revenue is low. However, this may negatively affect the company indirectly., as its competitors will start diverting products for the EU to other markets, including in Russian, where will they compete with MMK.
The main shareholder was subject to EU sanctions. Viktor Rashnikov, like many other owners and managers of large Russian companies, included in the sanctions list.
Change of ownership structure. Now Viktor Rashnikov owns MMK not through the Cypriot Mintha Holding Limited, and through the Russian LLC "Altair". Maybe, this is due to the ban on the transfer of dividends on shares to non-residents.
The company continues the cycle of large capital expenditures. According to the presentation for investors, ММК предполагает еще большее увеличение капитальных затрат по сравнению с высоким уровнем 2021 of the year. According to the company's forecast, with 2022 on 2025 год их ежегодный размер составит около 1,25 billion dollars.
We explain the example of Trafigura, how things are done and what Rosneft shareholders are afraid of. We assess the prospects for the expansion of REIT Prologis in Europe.
Disclaimer: when we talk about, that something has grown, we mean a comparison with the same quarter a year earlier. Since all issuers are from the USA, then all results in dollars. Continue reading “Пачка инвестновостей: Trafigura, «Роснефть» и европейские приключения Prologis”
Branch: essential goods
Ticker: GCHE
Country: Philippines 🇷🇺
Buy Cherkizovo shares in Tinkoff Investments
"Cherkizovo" (MCX: GCHE) — Russian manufacturer of meat products. The company controls all business processes: from the production of mixed fodder to the production of finished products. With 2006 года акции «Черкизово» торгуются на Московской бирже под тикером GCHE. Based on the results of 2021 года около 93% revenue accounted for sales in the Russian market. But in recent years, the company has been actively developing exports., especially to China and the Middle East.
The company is jointly owned and operated by members of the Mikhailov family. In the end 2021 year on 27,35% shares owned by two brothers: Sergey — CEO and Chairman of the Management Board — and Evgeny — Chairman of the Board of Directors and Director of Business Development.
15,03% Shares of Cherkizovo belong to the mother of the Mikhailov brothers - Lyudmila, who holds the position of CFO and is a member of the Board.
Another major shareholder of the company is the Spanish turkey producer Grupo Fuertes, who at the end of the year owned 8,34% Shares. But as a result of the consolidation deal 100% shares of the company "Tambov Turkey" The share of the Spanish manufacturer in the share capital of "Cherkizovo" has grown to 11,12% in January 2022 of the year.
| Sergey Mikhailov | 27,35% |
| Evgeny Mikhailov | 27,35% |
| Lyudmila Mikhailova | 15,03% |
| LLC "AK "Mikhailovsky"" | 2,78% |
| LLC "MC "Mikhailovsky"" | 0,45% |
| Grupo Fuertes | 8,34% |
| Other | 18,7% |
27,35%
Cherkizovo's main production facilities are concentrated in Russia, and the geography of production sites covers more than a dozen regions of the country: from Kaliningrad Oblast to Altai Krai.
Среднесписочная численность сотрудников превышает 31 тысячу человек, and the total production capacity is more than a million tons of meat products per year. Балансовая стоимость активов холдинга достигает 200 billion rubles.
Production activities of the company are divided into 5 large segments: "Chicken", Turkey, «Pork», "Meat processing" and "Crop production". Let's take a closer look at each of the segments.
"Chicken". Cherkizovo is the largest producer of chicken meat in Russia. Птицеводческие комплексы компании обладают суммарной производственной мощностью около 800 тысяч тонн мяса птицы в живом весе в год, or more 200 миллионов голов бройлеров. The company also occupies a leading position in the production of branded products, including such well-known trademarks, as "Petelinka" and "Chicken Kingdom".
The company almost completely provides itself with hatching chicken eggs and feed for growing birds., and 9 modern poultry complexes ensure stable production of finished products.
Turkey. One of the fastest growing and most promising areas of business, которое запустили в 2012 году благодаря договору с испанской компанией Grupo Fuertes о строительстве производственного комплекса «Тамбовская индейка». With 2017 года начался выпуск индейки под брендом «Пава-Пава». IN 2021 году «Черкизово» приобрела предприятие «Краснобор», которое находилось на третьем месте в России по объемам выпуска индейки в 2020 year. А в начале 2022 года «Тамбовская индейка» полностью перешла под контроль «Черкизово».
На фермах «Тамбовской индейки» содержится свыше 1,7 млн голов, а производственный комплекс включает инкубатор на 8,8 млн яиц, 5 cultivation sites, 10 площадок откорма и комбикормовый завод мощностью 180 тысяч тонн в год.
"Pork" and "Meat processing". Cultivation of pigs in own pig-breeding complexes for subsequent sale to meat processing plants and processors. Most of the products go to our own meat processing plants for further processing and production of finished meat products.
Pig-breeding complexes of the holding are located in Penza, Lipetsk, Voronezh, Tambov and Oryol regions, and processing plants are mainly located in the Moscow region. The company produces both commercial pigs, side carcasses and semi-finished products, as well as products of deep processing: different types of sausages, smoked meat and meat delicacies.
"Crop production". Земельный банк компании составляет около 300 тысяч гектаров сельхозугодий, on which wheat is grown, maize, barley, sunflower, soybeans and other crops, going to domestic consumption. Part of the harvest goes to its own feed mills for the production of mixed fodder.
Из-за неблагоприятных погодных условий общий объем собранного урожая в 2021 году сократился на четверть к уровню 2020 года и составил 597,2 thousands of tons.
| "Chicken" | 59,7% |
| "Meat processing" | 19,4% |
| «Pork» | 13% |
| Turkey | 6% |
| "Crop production" | 1,9% |
59,70%
| 2017 | 7,02 R |
| 2018 | 9,92 R |
| 2019 | 11,02 R |
| 2020 | 16,72 R |
| 2021 | 16,70 R |
7,02 R
Sales revenue. The company's revenues consist of two components: chicken sales volumes, Turkey, pork and meat processing products, as well as average selling prices.
The difference between sales revenue and cost of sales is called gross profit.. In order to calculate the net profit, from the gross subtract net operating and financial expenses, including tax payments and one-time items from non-cash revaluation of exchange rate differences and asset values.
Net profit. Allows you to evaluate the final results of activities in monetary terms. Dividends are paid from net profit and investment projects are financed without increasing the debt burden. Besides, the net profit indicator is used in the calculation of popular multipliers to assess the investment attractiveness of the business.
Coefficient P / E – the ratio of market capitalization to net profit. Determines, for how long can the company theoretically "recoup" the investor's investments in the issuer's securities.
Коэффициент ROE – the ratio of the company's net profit to its capital. Says that, how efficiently the company uses its capital compared to competitors.
International financial reporting standards require meat producers to reassess the value of biological assets – usually unsold birds and pigs – at current market prices.. Due to fluctuations in meat prices, the business has a profit or loss from the revaluation of biological assets., but this is a "paper" article, because there are no real sales at estimated prices. So that investors can see the real state of affairs in the company and the actual results are not distorted, management adjusts profits taking into account such one-time and non-monetary items.
| Revenue ↑ +23% | Growth in sales of meat products and average selling prices against the background of acceleration of inflation |
| Cost of sales ↑ +22% | |
| Gross profit ↑ +13% | |
| Free Cash Flow ↓ −21% | Large investments in the construction of new facilities and the purchase of competitors |
| Adjusted net income ↑ +21% | Historical maximum against the background of increased revenues and competent work with costs |
| Net debt ↑ +19% | Long-term loans and borrowings remained at the level of 2020 of the year, and short-term increased in 1,6 Times |
| Harvested ↓ −25% | Adverse weather conditions in Russia |
| Equity ↑ +11% | Retained earnings increased |
Growth in sales of meat products and average selling prices against the background of acceleration of inflation
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales of chicken meat | 522,49 | 544,10 | 663,03 | 695,08 | 711,24 |
| Turkey meat sales | 26,31 | 39,25 | 39,41 | 40,98 | 52,40 |
| Pork production | 211,76 | 247,26 | 284,17 | 337,11 | 242,80 |
| Sales of meat processing products | 110,79 | 106,73 | 107,66 | 113,6 | 135,86 |
| Harvested crop | 631,90 | 479,73 | 592,97 | 796,64 | 597,20 |
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 90,47 | 100,42 | 120,11 | 128,8 | 711,24 |
| Operating profit | 9,73 | 15,56 | 10,19 | 18,7 | 52,4 |
| Net income before adjustments | 5,8 | 12 | 6,75 | 15,18 | 16,9 |
| Net income after adjustments | 5,07 | 9,96 | 8,43 | 13,9 | 16,77 |
| free cash flow | −2,67 | 5 | 7,46 | 4,57 | 3,6 |
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capital expenditure | 12,3 | 9,8 | 8,6 | 12,2 | 17,4 |
| net debt | 48,7 | 58,6 | 61,2 | 64 | 76,2 |
| Adjusted EBITDA | 14,643 | 20,4 | 20,6 | 26,6 | 29,3 |
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P / E | 9,7 | 4,8 | 7,9 | 5,8 | 7,4 |
| ROE | 9,8% | 17% | 14,8% | 19,5% | 21,1% |
| net debt / adjusted EBITDA | 3,3× | 2,9× | 3,0× | 2,4× | 2,6× |
Favorable price situation in the market of meat products. With 2021 года растет инфляция, including in the food sector. Against this background, prices for meat products are near local highs and may grow in the future..
Increase in the share of exports. In recent years, Cherkizovo has been exporting its products, mainly to China and the Middle East. These markets have a large capacity and maintain friendly partnership ties with Russia., which is especially important in the context of tough sanctions rhetoric from Western countries.
High self-sufficiency in raw materials. Vertically integrated company structure allows you to control costs, which creates a competitive advantage due to low cost of sales.
Large-scale investment programs. In recent years, the business has been actively expanding its own production through the modernization of existing and the construction of new facilities.. Besides, the company actively absorbs competitors and increases its market share. This is reflected in the annual growth in meat production in 2015-2021..
Low liquidity of securities. The average daily trading volume of Cherkizovo shares remains relatively small, therefore, stock quotes are subject to high volatility due to changes in market sentiment..
Changes in the price situation in the global meat market. The financial results of the business are directly dependent on the price of chicken, Turkey, pork and sausages. Changes in market conditions and falling prices for meat products will negatively affect the final revenue and profit.
Large share of foreign ownership. The Spanish company Grupo Fuertes owns a large stake in Cherkizovo. Against the background of geopolitical conflicts and mutual restrictive measures of Russia and Western countries, the presence of a foreign company in the capital may create additional difficulties.. There is a risk that, that Cherkizovo will have to temporarily refuse to pay dividends, maybe, look for money to buy out the share of the Spanish manufacturer.
Great dependence on the domestic market. More 90% the company's revenues bring sales in Russia. A decrease in real disposable incomes of the population will lead to a drop in sales, which will have a negative impact on operating and financial results.
Biological risks. The company is engaged in the cultivation of pigs and birds at its production sites. Swine or chicken flu epidemics, as well as other diseases at enterprises lead to a decrease in the number of livestock and a significant decrease in the volume of output of finished products.
Согласно дивидендной политике «Черкизово» от мая 2018 of the year, the company sends for the payment of dividends not less than 50% of adjusted net profit under IFRS, if the ratio is "net debt" / adjusted EBITDA" does not exceed 2.5×. Profit in calculating the dividend base is adjusted taking into account one-time profits and losses and changes in the fair value of biological assets and agricultural products.
Despite the fact that the debt burden of Cherkizovo in recent years has periodically exceeded the level of 2.5×, the company did not reduce dividend payments below 50% from adjusted net profit.
| 2016 | 13,65 R |
| 2017 | 134,89 R |
| 2018 | 122,1 R |
| 2019 | 109,71 R |
| 2020 | 182,79 R |
| 1п2021 | 85,27 R |
13,65 R
Цены на продукты в 2022 году будут расти. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) ООН прогнозирует рост цен на продовольствие на 8—22% от высоких уровней начала 2022 года из-за военных действий на Украине.
Dividends postponed. 4 марта совет директоров «Черкизово» отменил рекомендацию по выплате дивидендов за 2021 отчетный год и проведение общего собрания акционеров 25 Martha 2022 of the year. Probably, this is due to the temporary ban on Russian issuers paying dividends to foreign individuals and legal entities. Let me remind you, that one of the largest shareholders of Cherkizovo is the Spanish holding Grupo Fuertes.
Undisputed Leader. Based on the results of 2021 года «Черкизово» в очередной раз стала лидером по производству мяса бройлеров с долей на российском рынке около 13%. Besides, the company ranked second in terms of exports of broiler meat.
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