macroeconomics ukraine

China and the tax code

China.

This is how Bloomberg in the words of the IMF says about the absence of a real estate bubble in China. Honestly, I do not state the opposite and do not subscribe to this thesis. Interesting argumentation. It seems to me, what we often forget, that there was no major housing bubble in the USA either, only regional excess..

 

tax code.

Lawmaking quality illustration, from idea to implementation. As well as an illustration of the level of development of public institutions. They got off the palm early. Retail sales are growing? Not only the external sector is available? That's good, вот и достаточно.

Inflation, inflation expectations and emotions

Inflation.

Today `` market participants expected a sharp acceleration in the growth of producer prices in the United States ''. waited, how to say so, softer.. All in all, last time, such a mistake was in full swing 2008 of the year. Speech, certainly, about the baseline, i.e. minus energy and s / x. Not great all somehow. All kinds of industrial production, it is predictable. And here is Empire State.. There, too, the prices did not go well, by the way..

I, certainly, glad to, what is happening in the markets, but it's time to pause. And, at all, can't help but shake off the thought, that somehow everything is too simple. well, yes, and too, quickly.

Inflationary expectations.

read, that someone from the NBU boasted about `` taking inflationary expectations under control '', which was the reason for the slowdown in inflation in Ukraine in the last of the reporting months.

shocked. Inflationary expectations? In Ukraine? Taken under control?
How? With using what? Where? It's all about what? It's a fantasy.

Emotions.

One side perfectly expressed [info]pshan, the other side, sad, at least well expressed [info]kar_barabas.

Recently, ready to become the head of the Fed, there are so many, which is simply based on the primitive contrarian view, you do not need to look at the basics of economic theory with apolitical eyes, to understand the current problems of monetary policy. And then, just like the famous hero 'take and share" some.

Ukrainian inflation

(inspired)
here, and you didn't believe me…

the truth is there is almost a flip side of the coin. вот знаете вы, that the consensus is wrong about something. usually you have the opportunity to make money on it. but not in Ukraine. Here's how to use the underestimation of the Ukrainian sipiye? but no way. that's how we live.

credit ethical dilemma

set A: people who are unable to pay the mortgage due to the return of economic conditions to reality.
question: Is it fair to seize pledges from representatives of set A in a strict manner??

before answering this question, need to ask another.

set B: people who did not take out a mortgage foreseeing a change in economic conditions.
question number 2:  is it fair to help set A based on the presence of set B?

there are two options for an answer:
1) No, not fair due to the creation of the wrong economic incentives. & quot; non-seizure of pledges" encourages irresponsible economic behavior.
2) Yes, fair if the consequences of the withdrawal of collateral will have a negative impact on macroeconomic stability and affect both set A, and the set B.

therefore:
* for the USA – rather yes, fairly.
* for Ukraine – probably not, not fair.

Probability of default in subsequent 5 years

“The world is no longer divided into emerging market or developed market risk but it is viewed in terms of a country’s ability to repay its debts,” said Nigel Rendell, strategist at RBC. (FT)

Probability of default in subsequent 5 years.

I suppose, what are the options. ie. the need for state recapitalization of the banking system, etc.
for otherwise, it is difficult to see such problems in Ukraine.

OMG where else to reduce..

Goldman Sachs said news of the agreement with the IMF should “reduce the country risk premium”.

it's about the IMF FT wrote

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yes by the way, TALF finally ends last week.

question to Ukrainian economists

tell, someone saw:
1) calculations (and especially a number of data) potential GDP of Ukraine?
2) & quot; natural" unemployment rate in Ukraine?

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if perverted with different rules of monetary policy for Ukraine,
then there are no special problems with those based on the difference between inflation and unemployment.

the fun begins with trying to figure out Taylor's rule) Especially considering the size of the GDP deflator;)
But the main mystery remains Output Gap. Of course you can `` figure it out" through the triple unemployment gap, but with our unemployment figures (mop of course) it will be stupid. Yes, и NAIRU – this 6%? 8%?

at all, our unemployment rate – very funny thing. employment is probably the most shaded of all parameters.

Everything you wanted to know about “economic policy” in Ukraine

What's with the program, what without a program… (Mirror of the Week)

quotes: Anatoly GALCHINSKY and Alexander SHLAPAK.

And the last. Overconfidence worries me, superiority and narcissism, manifested during the presentation of the document. After all, the problems of the Ukrainian economy — it's not only 15% fall in GDP last year and unbalanced budget. Exist, as we said, deeper foundations of the crisis, which are not reflected in statistics. I doubt, do the authors of the document under discussion understand these aspects?.

In my opinion, the program of socio-economic development of Ukraine can be assessed either seriously and deeply, either traditionally.

Furthermore, what worries me is, that the tactics of the previous government were mainly adopted. Namely: to endure, last a year, use the same instruments for financing the budget deficit (borrowing and equity financing). At the same time, nothing, in fact, do not change either in the energy, nor in the macro- and microeconomic policy in the hope that, that the economy, thanks to a favorable external environment and more active international trade, will gradually begin to grow and «will take out» us from a crisis. Offensive, because it loses a very important and rare, almost a unique opportunity in the implementation of reforms.

It makes no sense to dwell on all sections of the document in detail, he doesn't deserve it.

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