2020 the year was difficult for market participants. He then sank under the pressure of panic, then took off on a wave of euphoria. About five million new investors came to the exchange, creating a favorable background for IPOs (IPO).
Moreover, last year there was a decrease in the key rate, what made bank deposits an unprofitable instrument, so stock market became a great alternative. During 2020 r. nine new Russian issuers appeared, entered the market through IPO. Moreover, with 2015 by 2019 yy. a total of 18 new companies, the most recognizable among them: TCS Group, X5 Retail Group, RUSAL and Detsky Mir.
What is an IPO?
Initial Public Offering (IPO) - initial public offering of shares on the stock exchange, as a result of which the company becomes recognizable, and also attracts funds.
At the same time, investors receive shares of the company among the first and most often with a discount to the offering price.. but, despite the discount, the acquisition of assets through an IPO carries high costs - payment of broker commissions, depository and tax contributions. This amount can reach 6-7% of the contract amount.
In the early hours, when there is increased demand, the growth of quotations can compensate for all costs and bring significant profits. However, this profit cannot be fixed., as the organizers set a lock-up period, or blocking period (3-6 months), when you can't sell shares, received during the placement. This is done in order, to exclude manipulation by large players.
All Russian shares went through the IPO procedure and were listed on the Moscow Exchange through an initial public offering or listing.
Top most failed IPOs
1. People's IPO: VTB
In May 2007 r. had to go through "the most successful placement of shares among Russian retail investors", but the "people's" IPO turned into a nightmare.
Due to aggressive marketing in the media, a fifth of the shares of VTB Bank were acquired by individuals.
Placement passed at the price 13,6 kopecks per share, after which, in the first days of trading, the paper rose by 28,7%, setting the maximum at mark 17,49 kopecks. After that, the stock began to decline., dropping on 89% from historical highs.
Rice. 1. Shares of VTB Bank on the Moscow Exchange 2008–2020. Rice. 1. Shares of VTB Bank on the Moscow Exchange 2008–2020.
Minimum value following the crisis 2009 r. — 1,9 kopecks per share. The reason for such a pronounced fall in prices was the constant blurring of securities due to SPO (secondary public offering) and crisis 2009 r.
And although the crisis is long over, and the bank's indicators show good dynamics, its share price is still below the offering price.
This story ended well for only a fraction of the investors., who have submitted their shares for repurchase in 2012 r. However, not everyone was happy with the ransom., since its maximum amount was 500 thous. rub. per shareholder and was paid, only if the investor has waited out the entire five-year drawdown.
2. Classic IPO: "Obuv Rossii"
Obuv Rossii's IPO was the first small-cap IPO, which was attended by about 75% foreign investors. As a result, the company managed to attract 5,9 RUB bln. with annual revenue in 11 RUB bln.
Placement passed at the price 140 rub. per share, and already in the first hours the paper grew to 180 rub. However, after that, the share in three years decreased sevenfold - to 25,6 rub.
Rice. 2. Shares of PJSC Obuv Rossii at the Moscow Exchange 2018–2022. Rice. 2. Shares of PJSC Obuv Rossii at the Moscow Exchange 2018–2022.
The reasons for the negative dynamics were unfavorable market conditions and ineffective management of the company. (with the proceeds 5,9 RUB bln. more 5 billion went to increase reserves, while revenue grew by only 8,5%, and the debt load in the amount 7 billion decreased by only 500 RUB million).
3. LSR Group: at the wrong time, in the wrong place
Another failed IPO was the placement of LSR Group. The history of quotes is similar to the history of VTB, however, in this case, the reason for the decline was the crisis 2008 g., as well as a combination of several factors.
- Decline in the purchasing power of the population.
- Devaluation of the ruble. With a high debt load, this was critical - the amount of net debt in relation to the amount of assets was 72% based on the results of 2007 r.
- Growth in the cost of export materials.
Rice. 3. Shares of PJSC LSR Group at the Moscow Exchange 2008–2020. Rice. 3. Shares of PJSC LSR Group at the Moscow Exchange 2008–2020.
IN 2009 r. the company's shares have partially recovered their losses and are still trading at these values.
Top most profitable IPOs
It is difficult to single out the most profitable IPOs on the Russian market, since most companies, whose shares are traded on the Moscow Exchange, have grown significantly. for example, Sberbank has grown from 55 kopecks to 300 rub. Therefore, only the loudest stories will be considered..
1. TCS Group
In this case, the IPO took place on the London Stock Exchange (LSE), and the listing of global depositary receipts was passed on the Moscow Exchange (GDR).
Excluding the decline in stock prices during the first wave of coronavirus, since the listing, the bank's securities have grown by more than 3,5 times.
Rice. 4. GDR TCS Group at the Moscow Exchange 2020–2021. Rice. 4. GDR TCS Group at the Moscow Exchange 2020–2021.
The key to success is having your own ecosystem, high growth rates of revenue and profit, as well as a high return on equity - 40% by the end of last year.
2. Ozone: most successful IPO 2020 of the year
Placed Ozon at the most favorable time: during the acute phase of the pandemic, shares of all retailers were in high demand, and online trading (e-commerce) was on top of demand, especially during lockdown. As a result, on the first day of trading, Ozon rose by 41% higher than the placement price, and the close of the first day of trading took place at +34%.
But the company's shares did not stop there and have added more than 90%.
Rice. 5. ADR Ozone at Mosbirge 2020–2021. Rice. 5. ADR Ozone at Mosbirge 2020–2021.
3. GC "Airplane"
GC "Samolet" became another lucky one, who chose the right time for an IPO. Only the growth was not due to the pandemic and lockdowns, and a significant reduction in the key rate and preferential mortgage, against the background of which the demand for real estate increased, and behind it the prices.
An additional driver was the transition to escrow accounts, which, contrary to expectations, turned out to be an advantage, not an obstacle for developers.
Earlier when using an equity participation agreement (DDU) developers were forced to sell real estate in the early stages, reducing profits. Now developers use their own or borrowed funds, selling real estate at a later stage, thereby maximizing your profit.
Rice. 6. Shares of GC "Samolet" at the Moscow Exchange 2020–2021. Rice. 6. Shares of GC "Samolet" at the Moscow Exchange 2020–2021.
Expected IPOs 2021 of the year
Last year, a number of IPOs were canceled due to unfavorable market conditions, however, this year's failed plans may come true.
Among the confirmed IPOs it is worth highlighting Fix Price and Segezha Group, which have already been posted. On the way more "Compare.ru" and "VkusVill". except them, strive to enter the market:
Investors still have the opportunity to participate in the IPO, however, do not rely solely on analysts' forecasts, but it is better to independently study the public reporting of companies.