My view on the market

I haven't written about the market for a long time))
all scandals, расследования…

In general .. if a real downward reversal of the market has already taken place – this will be my epic fail… because I will certainly not be able to open mid-term shorts by the end of the year (which means I will pass through all the profits in the world).. because in my understanding of the market, we have to update the hai.. and then down and for a long time… Because. globally – I am a bear and I wrote about this already…

And, too much down in front of the highs, we also theoretically should not go, because the reversal is very close.. Look sentiment on amers – the market is already overheated by bulls and a reversal is brewing.

I do not think, that any interest correction on 5 can change sentiment… which means, according to the law of the market, the faster the reversal occurs – all the better. Upgrading the Hays will give you the last portion of Longs or Shortwing, because. many more buyers can be found there, despite, that right now everyone is already set to buy or have already bought… Too many beautiful resistances, where there will be bursts of liquidity, which, in turn, can be used to open shorts by major players. Such levels are already on almost all timeframes.. ~ 1430 per day. 1406 on a weekly. 1455 on a monthly. There will be buyers, не смотря на то, what is this hai.. which means the market will find an opportunity to use it. As they say, the market goes there, where the most money awaits him… So go to Loi 2010-2009-2008 now – too unprofitable and too ineffective for the market.

This is my view of the market as a whole.. He certainly has a few points., which i don't like:
– I can't fully play short now, just because I don’t believe in falling from these levels by the end of the year. So,, щас, when the market falls – I have to stand aside.. And if I'm wrong – then the market will come to loi without me )))
– Because. general sentiment(bull) near critical reversal levels, I am also stressed by my opening of longs.. It turns out, that everyone is talking – and I buy here.. although you need to do the opposite.
– Sl. a week it is very possible still a hike down to an indefinite number of points, because. last thing “demonstrative resistance” drawn this week, weekly candle. From experience I can say, that we didn't fall enough from this resistance, that the market would return to him. And that means, what sl. for a week, too, I won't be able to play unambiguously with a good volume for my depot and with a worthy goal in either direction .. (it seems like it should fall.. but then they must come back too)) … At most some shitty handjob day trading.

From all of the above, it turns out, that I can make a normal loot, if I enter very profitable long(lower than now) and I will hold it until the hay, which I expect. Either after that, how will we update the hai, play long-term short… These are my ideas for extra profit)

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Once again in pictures. As i thought, the situation will develop: The last spurt before the reversal. Breaking through resistances, centerfold.
Instead of breaking through visual resistances (day, month), the market drew another one on the weekly chart and went down. А что это значит?

And that means, that apparently there will be a construction through the release of a part of bullish sentiment, and after returning to extremes:

I honestly find it difficult to determine the depth of the index drawdown… here it is necessary to follow the volumes… How to see a real platform to start a bullish trend – I'll try to post it in LJ (screenshots from volfix)
But you can still speculate.

The last picture would look very realistic., if not for the next))) :

Это месячный schedule мамбы. We look at the last current candle… Before closing 7 trading days. If the candlestick closes at the opening price (something like a dodge), then I can imagine the update of the hay already at the next candle(сентябрь)… or at the very beginning of the second (October). Ie. в рамках 2-5 weeks my script can be executed…
But I honestly think it's unlikely)))) which means, if the candle closes like now or below, then upgrading the hay at the best I can imagine minimum across 2 candles + the beginning of the third hits the target clearly) And this is fucking > 2 Months))) I am not yet ready to present a drawdown of indices in this case)))

By the way… for that, that this trip down will be false (if it will be) says that, that the mamba does not confirm the drain on the western sites. Right now, even the joint venture is at the level 20 July,  20 July rush was 1320. Difference in 46 points by index!!! And rush, как я уже говорил, always ahead of the west… And if she is not led to the western movement – means in the west a lure))) And if it starts to fall forward of the west – so here he is, new trend….

This is my train of thought so far… ))))

Do not think of a current, that I have such inputs.. like I went – and see what happens in a month)) For the accuracy of trades and minimization of the stop loss, I use the volumes VS volatility..