We study the operating results of Transneft for 2021 year

Изучаем операционные результаты «Транснефти» за 2021 год

We study the operating results of Transneft for 2021 year

"Transneft" (MCX: TRNFP) operates the world's largest oil trunk pipeline system with a length of over 50 thousand kilometers, acts as a monopolist in Russia in terms of oil transportation volumes and controls one of the largest port operators in terms of cargo turnover - NCSP.

13 января компания опубликовала предварительные финансовые результаты 2021 года и планы на 2022 year, and 14 January, issued a press release with the results of work on the supply of oil and petroleum products in the past year.

IN 2021 году компания транспортировала около 83% of all oil produced and about 29% light oil products, made in Russia.

Disclaimer: if we write, that something went up or down by X%, then by default we mean a comparison with the report data for the same period last year, unless otherwise stated.

Market situation

The main income of Transneft comes from pumping oil and oil products through its own pipelines in Russia and for export, as well as shipping oil through seaports. Therefore, the company's revenue mainly consists of two factors.: volumes of transportation of hydrocarbons and tariffs for the provision of services.

IN 2021 году на нефтяном рынке восстановились спрос и цены после кризиса 2020 of the year. The largest oil producing countries gradually increased production limits as part of the OPEC + deal. Since August 2021 года объемы нефтедобычи ежемесячно увеличиваются на 400 тысяч баррелей в сутки. Expected, что сделка ОПЕК+ будет действовать до конца 2022 of the year.

Благодаря увеличению лимитов Россия по итогам 2021 года нарастила объемы добычи на 2,2% - to 524,1 million tons. Основная причина низкой динамики — высокая база января — апреля 2020 of the year, when the new restrictions have not yet come into force.

IN 2022 году появится новый фактор, restricting oil production in Russia, – lack of available reserves due to lack of investment in the industry in previous years. Back in November 2021 года крупнейшие российские нефтяные компании сообщали о снижении доступных свободных мощностей. It is unlikely that it will be possible to quickly increase production volumes, even if OPEC+ removes all restrictions.

At the same time, world oil prices continued to rise amid strong demand due to the crisis in the gas market.. 19 January, the price of Russian Urals oil exceeded 90 $ per barrel - for the first time since 2 October 2014 of the year.

Transneft annually publishes forecasts regarding the volumes of pumping for the current year based on the requests of shippers. Предлагаю ознакомиться с планами на 2022 год и оценить, to what extent the forecasts of the last year coincided with the actual data.

Oil supplies

Transneft increased the total volume of oil supplies by 2% - to 449,7 млн тонн — в 2021 year. At first sight, dynamics are not impressive, but the prognosis was even worse: it was assumed that the flow rate would be reduced by about 1%. The stable situation on the oil market made it possible to avoid negative dynamics, thanks to which OPEC + gradually eased restrictive measures. IN 2022 году компания планирует повторить успех прошлого года и увеличить прокачку еще на 2% - to 458,4 million tons.

Most of the oil is supplied to Russian refineries for further processing. IN 2021 году спрос со стороны перерабатывающего сектора вырос, which led to an increase in the volume of deliveries in Russia by 6% - to 247,9 million tons. IN 2022 году по плану «Транснефть» увеличит прокачку на российские НПЗ еще на 2% - to 253,8 млн тонн — и достигнет нового исторического максимума.

In recent years, Russia has been actively modernizing old and building new processing facilities. Transneft data reflects this trend, while domestic consumption is growing, among other things, by reducing the supply of crude oil for export.

Based on the results of 2021 года поставки нефти на экспорт в ближнее и дальнее зарубежье сократились на 3% - to 201,8 million tons.

В ближнее зарубежье в 2021 году «Транснефть» поставила на 18% less oil, than a year earlier, — лишь 11,7 million tons. It's almost in 2 раза меньше запланированных 21 million tons. По плану на поставки в Беларусь приходилось 20 million tons, в реальности вышло 10,7 million tons.

Deliveries to non-CIS countries decreased by 2% - to 190,1 million tons, — но оказались значительно выше прогнозных 175,5 млн тонн на фоне быстрого восстановления мировой экономики от последствий коронавируса и адаптации к новым условиям.

IN 2021 году объемы трансграничных поставок по трубопроводам «Транснефти» сократились на 11%, and exports through seaports increased by 5% — mainly due to an increase in oil cargo turnover through the ports of Primorsk, Kozmino and Ust-Luga with a simultaneous drop in oil exports through the port of Novorossiysk.

Структура экспорта нефти в дальнее зарубежье в 2021 году и динамика год к году, million tons

Druzhba pipeline35,9−20,9%
Port of Novorossiysk19,7−4,4%
Port of Primorsk36,3+9,3%
Port of Kuzmino35,1+6,7%
Port of Ust-Luga23,2+5,9%
China400%

35,9 (−20,9%)

Deliveries through the Druzhba oil pipeline dropped significantly 21% due to weak demand from Europe. Poland became the leaders in the drop in oil pumping through Druzhba (−41%), Germany (−18%) and Hungary (−11%).

Объемы экспорта в Китай остаются стабильными и составляют 40 million tons per year. Exactly the same amount should be sent this year..

В планах «Транснефти» увеличить объемы поставок в дальнее зарубежье в 2022 year before 194,5 million tons, and more than half of this volume will be sent through seaports.

Dynamics of oil supplies by Transneft by main directions, million tons

refinery in RussiaNear AbroadFar Abroad Total
2017243,718,61215,20477,6
2018249,319,00211,48480,4
2019245,918,6220,3485
2020233,614,3194,1442,3
2021247,911,7190,1449,7
2022253,810194,5458,4

Supplies of petroleum products

Transneft increased the volume of supplies of petroleum products by 3% - to 38,9 million tons, — хотя прогнозировала падение до 36,3 million tons. Actual results were better than forecast due to the rapid recovery of oil refining volumes in Russia against the backdrop of a significant easing of restrictive measures.

The main growth driver was an increase in the supply of motor gasoline by 16% - to 2,2 млн тонн — и авиационного керосина на 35% - to 2,3 million tons. At the same time, the volume of transportation of diesel fuel, which occupies a key place in the supply, остались практически на уровне 2020 года и составили 34,4 million tons.

IN 2022 году планируется транспортировать около 36,3 млн нефтепродуктов, What's on 7% less, чем поставили в 2021 year. When planning the volume of deliveries for the coming year, Transneft management proceeds from the current requests of shippers, that's why, as we see, plans may differ markedly from actual results and are only rough guidelines for evaluating.

Oil products transportation dynamics, million tons

201733,1
201839,2
201937,8
202037,8
202138,9
202236,3

33,1

Tariffs

Transneft's activities are regulated by the state in the pipeline segment, where tariff indexation is tied to forecast inflation for the next year. If forecast inflation is lower than actual inflation, this will have a negative impact on the profitability of the business., because operating expenses are growing faster than revenues.

IN 2021 году тарифы на услуги транспортировки нефти по системе «Транснефти» были проиндексированы лишь на 3,59%, while official inflation in Russia was 8,4% based on the results of 2021 of the year. With 1 January 2022 года тарифы «Транснефти» на прокачку повысились еще на 4,3%, which seems to be an insufficient level of indexation given the high level of inflation in Russia.

Probably, this is what affects the reduction in the volume of pumping through pipes in favor of shipment through the port infrastructure, where there is no strict regulation by the state.

Indexation of tariffs for oil transportation services through the Transneft system from 1 January

20173,6%
20183,77%
20193,87%
20203,42%
20213,6%
20224,3%

3,6%

Revenue

According to preliminary data, консолидированная выручка «Транснефти» в 2021 году выросла на 12% - to 1077,5 млрд рублей — от низкой базы 2020 of the year, including 688,5 млрд рублей от транспортировки нефти и 75,7 млрд рублей от транспортировки нефтепродуктов. I will note, that the company's revenue not only exceeded pre-crisis figures, but it turned out to be a record.

On 2022 год холдинг прогнозирует рост выручки на 3,5% - to 1114,8 billion rubles, - which indicates a low potential for growth in financial indicators at the end of the current year.

Transneft's revenue dynamics, billion rubles

2017884,3
2018980
20191063,8
2020962,4
20211077,5
20221114,8

884,3

What's the bottom line?

Реальные производственные результаты «Транснефти» в 2022 году оказались заметно лучше собственных прогнозов в начале прошлого года, although the dynamics leave much to be desired. The main driver of growth is the domestic market, где удалось заметно нарастить объемы поставок на российские НПЗ на фоне развития нефтеперерабатывающей отрасли и восстановления спроса после кризисного 2020 of the year.

In the structure of exports, attention should be paid to the increase in the share of deliveries through seaports due to the modernization of port infrastructure. Менеджмент планирует выделить еще 23 млрд рублей в 2022 году на развитие инфраструктуры Новороссийского морского торгового порта. This will reduce the company's dependence on pipeline exports., where the recent increase in tariffs does not beat off even the level of official inflation.

On 2022 год компания закладывает консервативный прогноз динамики объемов экспорта и итоговой выручки, but actual data may differ markedly from forecasts.