IPO prospects
The difference between Dropbox and its closest competitor, Box, is, that more data processing processes are built into the interface, which is closer to OS X, than Windows. Dropbox also has special features, заточенные под тяжёлые графические файлы и video, and allows you to better control the joint work on documents, of which there are already more than several billion in the service.
The reason for the company's IPO, normally, therein, that she needs money, and therefore it may well offer favorable conditions for the purchase of securities, which usually have a growth potential of +10% to +30%. Equity replenishment avoids the cost of raising borrowing costs. Unlike the private equity market, in which the cost estimates are sometimes too high, from companies, going public, usually, there is an urgent need to raise funding. As a result, downround is organized - sale of shares at a reduced price, and them, in exchange for publicity, have to show investors past financial performance.
Companies, usually, timed such deals to coincide with milestones in evolution and create a lot of noise around the IPO, for example, Dropbox began preparations for its IPO after, how his proceeds touched the cherished $1 billion per year.
In addition to the potential demand for the service and the prospects for obtaining cash flow, еще одна важная мотивация для инвесторов вкладываться в бизнесы-стартапы — отсутствие кризиса и привлекательная оценка биржи для выхода на IPO. It means, that indices keep updating highs, and the price-to-earnings ratios move up, seriously affecting the cost of savings for those, who has not invested money in profitable instruments.
Following Dropbox, which is already preparing for the initial placement, possible, for example, IPO of the electronic digital signature service DocuSign, music service Spotify, Singapore gaming company Sea. From this point of view, current maximum values for stock indices are not an obstacle to investments, а по-прежнему мягкая монетарная политика FED только способствует росту стоимости активов.
How much is Dropbox rated?
За всё время своего существования компания несколько раз привлекала инвестиции. IN 2007 year, when the idea for Dropbox came about, service received first $15 thousand, and then $1,2 million, in 2008 – $6 million from Sequoia Capital.
Dropbox's second round of funding took place in 2011 year. Despite, что в это время у компании возникли проблемы — её обвинили во лжи пользователям о защите данных – группа инвесторов во главе с Index Ventures вложила в стартап $250 million, and because of what the assessment of the company was $4 billion. However, already by 2013 year the cost increased to $8 billion.
Once again, Dropbox contacted 2014 year. New service policy, business-oriented and profitable, liked the investors, и некоторые из них во главе с BlackRock инвестировали в стартап ещё $350 million. This increased the value of the company to $10 billion.
As a result, in 2014 Dropbox became the most expensive startup in Silicon Valley based on fundraising from non-public markets. And soon after that, talks began about the company's IPO..
Long road to IPO
IN 2013 year service, initially targeted at individuals, was seriously improved. It has become convenient not only for personal, but also for work needs - there are ample opportunities for companies to administer the work of employees with corporate information, access to which is protected. And if ordinary users preferred to use Dropbox for free, то корпоративный аккаунт обходится как минимум в $12,5 на человека в месяц (price for a group from 3 users).
At that moment, Dropbox was seriously concerned with its monetization, it began to hire sales specialists and poach famous representatives of the Internet industry.. Her staff has grown to 500 employees, which included the head of Facebook mobile partnerships Henri Moissinac and Kevin Egan, built the Salesforce sales line.
By March 2016 года в сервисе зарегистрировались 500 million people. Already after that, how Dropbox became the most valuable young tech company, rumors of possible imminent share placement spread on Wall Street. IN 2015 year its securities were put up for auction by Box Inc. - Dropbox competitor, which fueled interest in the company's IPO. However, Dropbox was in no rush with a similar move..
Maybe, the reason was, what market investors, unlike private, pay much more attention to the company's profitability. According to Thomson Reuters, доходы от технологических IPO упали c $34 billion c 2014 year before $6,7 billion c 2015 year and shrank to $2,9 billion c 2016 year. It is because of this that last year Uber Technologies and Airbnb Inc. decided to postpone listing until better times, fearing, that the IPO will reduce their capitalization. Dropbox also did not conduct a public offering in any 2015, neither in 2016 year.
The company's management did not sit idly by all this time, but gently prepared investors for their IPO. Dropbox has been releasing key financial metrics on a regular basis over the past year, although not obligated to do so.
In June 2016 года Dropbox отчиталась о том, that the company's cash flow has become positive. In January of this year it became known, что компания достигла годовой выручки в размере $1 billion. And finally, in April the company announced, which achieved positive EBITDA, and this is the key metric, especially for tech companies.
All of these events taken separately are already giving experienced investors a positive sign., but the news about the upcoming Dropbox IPO this year began to spread actively after the news that, that the company has started looking for underwriters. Expected, that Goldman Sachs Group Inc will be the lead consultant. JPMorgan Chase can also take part in the event & Co.
Truth, none of the banks have been approved yet, and Dropbox itself has not made an official announcement about the IPO. None of the participating companies has yet confirmed rumors about the placement of shares..
Technically, Dropbox may refuse IPO even after negotiations with potential underwriters. Но СМИ ожидают, that the placement of shares will take place 3-4 quarter 2017 of the year. Investors are so eagerly awaiting the Dropbox IPO not only because, that the process was delayed, and 2016 the year was stingy with interesting events in this area. The point is also, что IPO Dropbox грозит стать крупнейшим со времен выхода на биржу Snapchat (Snap company).
Will Dropbox's IPO Become Big
IPO will be Dropbox's key value check since then, how in 2014 year it was appreciated in $10 billion. But experts expect, что в результате размещения акций капитализация компании снизится.
The easiest way to predict Dropbox's post-IPO value is to rely on competitor Box Inc's expertise.. The latter was assessed by private investors at $2,4 billion, but on the market its price dropped to $1,67 billion. The ratio of the company's market capitalization to its annual revenue based on the results of the last 12 месяцев составило 5,68.
If we apply the same ratio to Dropbox, whose annual income is $1 billion, then we get an estimate of $5,68 billion. It's on 43,2% below the previous estimate in $10 billion.
Interesting, what, according to the Wall Street Journal, Dropbox shares have had a similar fate in the private market. The company's share price fell from $19 in the first quarter 2014 years to average price $10,16 in the second quarter 2016 of the year, which reflects a decrease in 46% in the assessment.
But you need to keep in mind, that Dropbox now has positive EBITDA and claims, which is growing rapidly. This, probably, will allow you to rate Dropbox higher, than Box. Nevertheless, also likely, that Dropbox's estimate will be lower, than in the previous round of funding.
