Investidea: Fiserv, because they won't have time to spend everything

Инвестидея: Fiserv, потому что все потратить не успеют

Investidea: Fiserv, because they won't have time to spend everything

FiservFISV88,96 $КупитьСервис в партнерстве с Тинькофф Инвестициями. Quotes are updated every 15 minutes

Today we have a moderately speculative idea.: take shares of the American fintech enterprise Fiserv (NASDAQ: FISV), in order to capitalize on their rebound after a recent fall.

Growth potential and validity: 16,5% behind 15 Months; 36,5% behind 2,5 of the year; 10% per annum during 15 years.

Why stocks can go up: because recently they have fallen a lot.

How do we act: take now 88,96 $.

When creating the material, sources were used, inaccessible to users from the Russian Federation. We hope, Do you know, what to do.

No guarantees

Our reflections are based on the analysis of the company's business and the personal experience of our investors, but remember: not a fact, that the investment idea will work like this, as we expect. Everything, what we write, are forecasts and hypotheses, not a call to action. To rely on our reflections or not – it's up to you.

And what is there with the author's forecasts

Research, like this and this, talk about, that the accuracy of target price predictions is low. And that's ok: there are always too many surprises on the stock exchange and accurate forecasts are rarely realized. If the situation were reversed, then funds based on computer algorithms would show results better than people, but alas, they work worse.

So we're not trying to build complex models.. The profitability forecast in the article is the author's expectations. We specify this forecast for the landmark. As with the investment idea in general, readers decide for themselves, it is worth trusting the author and focusing on the forecast or not.

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Investment editorial office

What the company makes money on

We have published a detailed review of the company's business, so let's not repeat ourselves. The main thing for us, что компания предоставляет услуги в сфере проведения платежей.

Arguments in favor of the company

There is progress, но нет признания. Перед началом коронакризиса компания стоила 122 $ per share, and now - 88,96 $, притом что прогресс в ее бизнесе был очень значительный. Скоро инвесторы начнут обращать внимание на эту несправедливость.

Investidea: Fiserv, because they won't have time to spend everything

There is room to move. Company, in fact, is two different enterprises: динамично развивавшаяся ранее First Data и купившая ее старая Fiserv. So now it turns out that way., что Fiserv активно модернизирует свой бизнес и находится в процессе обновления. The fruits of this are already emerging., но в перспективе плюсы от слияния компаний станут еще более очевидными.


What can get in the way

Debts. У компании огромное долговое бремя в размере 43 млрд долларов, из которых 20 млрд — это долгосрочный долг. Практически все долги взялись от займов на поглощение First Data — со стратегической точки зрения это было верным решением, но в контексте роста ставок и подорожания займов обслуживание столь тяжелого бремени будет проблемой. А уж если компания будет скупать стартапы, то проблема эта станет еще больше.

Кризис — воображаемый враг инвестора. Сейчас в США многие боятся, that a recession is about to hit, и этот страх может заставить людей сократить расходы — что ударит по доходам Fiserv, ведь сократится объем обрабатываемых ею платежей.

It costs a lot. P / S at the company 3,49, a P / E — 34,53. It's pretty expensive..

Investidea: Fiserv, because they won't have time to spend everything

What's the bottom line?

Shares can be taken now by 88,96 $. Then there are three options:

  1. дождаться возвращения к уровню 104 $. Think, тут можно достигнуть указанного уровня за следующие 15 Months;
  2. wait for the return to the level 122 $. Here it is better to rely on 2,5 years of waiting;
  3. keep shares next 15 years, while Fiserv is transforming.

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