Investments. Events of the week (№ 12)

Hello everybody! It's time to take stock of the week in investments. Let's recall the news and analyze the portfolios.

Инвестиции. События недели (№ 12)

Finance and investmentFinance and investment

Many were waiting for the meeting FED this week wednesday. Therefore, it is logical to start covering news from him.. Following the meeting, the FRS announced the beginning of the curtailment of emergency stimulus in November, left the rate at the level 0,25%. Will begin to reduce the monthly rate of asset purchases by 15 billion. Doll. What does it mean? It means, that finally the uncles were fed up and decided to slow down inflation. Minimizing incentives, and even more the growth of the rate next year, cool inflation. At least I want to hope so.

OPEC + meeting was held on Thursday. Oil production was left at the same levels, ie. production will be increased by 400 000 barrels per day in December. OPEC + did not heed the requests of importing countries, as well as the United States on increasing production by 600-800 thousand barrels. While maintaining the growth rate of demand, oil prices should continue to rise.

This week can be called IPO week on the Moscow Exchange. Whole 2 companies went public: Softline and CIAN. Also there should have been an IPO of Delimobil, but the company decided to postpone the IPO due to market conditions. What are these conditions, Wonder, but most likely, there was simply no demand from investors. The results of other IPOs are in different directions: Softline falls on 11%, and CIAN is growing by 1,6%. Conclusions based on several trading days, obviously, do early, let's see, how stocks will behave in the future.

On Wednesday, the Russian government decided to introduce a quota for the export of fertilizers for a period of six months. Export quota for nitrogen fertilizers - 5,9 million tons for six months, complex - 5,35 million tons. It would seem that, for agricultural companies, such as, PhosAgro, Akron, the news must be negative. Yes, stocks fell heavily on Wednesday, however, on Friday they completely won back the fall and began to grow even stronger. Apparently, in current realities (rise in prices and competitiveness of the Russian Federation) stocks are very strong fundamentally. But here 100% dependence on the market situation, the companies themselves have little influence on him. Therefore, if the market situation deteriorates,, it will immediately affect promotions.

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As a result, this week we have an increase in the Moscow Exchange index by 0,6% and in recent weeks the index has been in a sideways trend. I'd love to hope, for a gradual decrease in the following periods. My portfolio fared worse this week, falling by 0,17% in value terms. Taking into account the generous dividends received from Alrosa in the amount of 1 465,1 rub. my portfolio added 0,06%.

Stocks in a portfolio behave in different directions. Among metallurgists, MMK and NLMK are declining, but Severstal is growing. At the same time, metal prices in China continue to decline, like many other products, eg, coal and aluminum. Positive trend, the main thing, to keep it going.

The leader of the fall - FGC UES (-3,8%), which I bought on the last day of October. There was no negative news and the fall, apparently, speculative. Although, unlike Inter RAO, the growth in demand abroad is not reflected in shares, because. the company does not export electricity to other countries, a specializes in the transmission of electricity through the Unified National Electric Grid of Russia.

Oil companies are also declining, despite maintaining plans for OPEC +. Brent quotes are still flat, therefore, there have been no drivers for the growth of oil companies yet.

PhosAgro shares are growing (+4,1%) and Raspadskaya (+4,5%). According to PhosAgro wrote above: despite export restrictions for next year, investors buy up shares. I don't think, what is it reasonable at the moment. Raspadskaya shares rebound on coal prices. The latter fell in price by 40% for the month and this week there was a slight upward correction, but the trend is still falling, which is good in the face of rising inflation.

But whatever happens in the markets, I maintain an objective view of investments and try to assess the situation soberly.

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