What investment banks and investors say about the new strain of "omicron"

Что говорят инвестбанки и инвесторы о новом штамме «омикрон»

Since last Friday, the new strain of COVID-19 "omicron" is the main topic for discussion in the stock market. CNBC surveyed large banks and found out, what is the risk?, in their opinion, carries "omicron" for investors.

Many learned about the strain 26 November, when WHO convened an urgent meeting. According to the organization, not yet known, how vaccinated and sick with COVID-19 people are resistant to the new variant of the virus. It can be much more contagious compared to other strains., so the WHO called the risk of global spread of "mikron" very high.

On Friday, stock indices S on such news&P 500, Nasdaq and the Dow Jones fell by about 2%. More than others, the securities of quarantine-sensitive companies have become cheaper. So, shares of air carriers American, United and Delta fell 8-10%, cruise companies Carnival and Royal Caribbean - by 11-13%.

Investors began to sell off risky assets like stocks and crypto and buy bonds.. As a result, the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds fell from 1,65 to 1,5%.

One of the few growing companies was Moderna, which promised to develop a vaccine against "micron" early next year. The company's shares for two trading days rose by 35%.

Monday morning stock market began to recover. U.S. President Joe Biden said, that will not impose restrictions in connection with the new strain. By the end of day S&P 500 added 1,3%, Nasdaq — 1,9%.

Despite recent growth, markets remain volatile. The head of Moderna said, that existing vaccines may not be as effective against Umicron. As a result, on Tuesday, futures for the Dow Jones index fall on 1,5%, S&P 500 - on 1,2%, Nasdaq - on 0,7%.

And here's what the leading investment banks from Wall Street and ordinary investors say about this situation..

Goldman Sachs

In the worst-case scenario, omicrone would be more contagious and resistant to vaccines.. This could trigger a new wave of diseases in early 2022., but will not lead to changes in the long run: "We don't change our forecast until then., until such a scenario becomes more likely.".

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Wells Fargo

Probably, the new strain will exacerbate supply disruptions and slow the return of workers to the office. Investors should not make investment decisions in a hurry: "We do not recommend getting rid of risky assets".

Swiss credit

You should stay in stocks, because markets can turn around quickly: "The number of unknowns is still high.. Our assumption is that, that vaccines will retain some efficacy. To collect all the data on efficacy and mortality rate, Need, probably, Two weeks. In our opinion, uncertainty will lead to a temporary drop in prices. In the last 18 Months of concerns were short-lived. So, alpha, beta- and delta strains caused very short-term sell-offs.".

RBC Capital Markets

"Omicron" will affect the sectors of the real economy, and also stimulates investors to pay attention to large companies: "Trading volume was small on Friday., but the reaction of the markets showed serious concerns. ".

Deutsche Bank

In the coming weeks, volatility may increase, although statements by vaccine manufacturers will help limit the fall: "There are a lot of comments in the media., but real data is scarce. The reaction of the markets on Friday shows, that they will be very sensitive to any news..


New COVID-19 Variant Could Force FED review their plans to roll back stimulus measures: "Given the known information, we continue to expect a sustained recovery of the global economy. Omicron should also reduce investors' concerns about early monetary tightening.".


Investors should consider, to redeem the last fall: "Given all the concerns, negative news and continuous growth of shares, sale seems logical. Nevertheless, we do not expect a bear market and will buy all drawdowns. ".

What investors themselves think

Deutsche Bank surveyed about 1.5 thousand customers. Only 10% investors called "omicron" "the biggest risk". 60% consider the strain a "topic of medium importance", but 30% expect, that the new virus will soon be forgotten. According to the bank, investors are not in the mood for negative news. This may lead to a sale, if there is a lot of such news, according to the bank.

In the situation with "mikron", which threatens quarantine and closure of the economy, most interesting is the Fed's reaction. Early stimulus cuts could also have a negative impact on economic recovery, and in the stock market. But soft policies will continue to accelerate already high inflation..

  Day off)))

THE US Bureau of Statistics will publish data on the consumer price index 10 December, and a few days later, 14—15 декабря, The Fed will hold its next meeting.

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