Don’t obsess over interest rates
After doing an extensive quantitative study, Glaeser, Gottlieb, and Gyourko report (ungated here):
Interest rates do influence house prices, but they cannot provide anything close to a complete explanation of the great housing market gyrations between 1996 and 2010. Over the long 1996-2006 boom, they cannot account for more than one-fifth of the rise in house prices. Their biggest predictive influence is during the 2000-2005 period, when long rates fell by almost 200 basis points. That can account for about 45 of the run-up in home values nationally during that half-decade span.